COMET CORPSES IN THE SOLAR WIND: A paper published in today's issue of Science raises an intriguing new possibility--the presence of abundant comet corpses in the solar wind. The new research is based on dramatic images of a comet disintegrating in the sun's atmosphere last July. [full story]

INCOMING CME: Active sunspot 1401 erupted yesterday, Jan. 19th around 16:30 UT, producing an M3-class solar flare and a full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME). The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded the cloud expanding almost directly toward Earth:

Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives this weekend. Their animated forecast track predicts an impact on Jan. 21st at 22:30 UT (+/- 7 hrs).

The cloud is also heading for Mars, due to hit the Red Planet on Jan. 24th. NASA's Curiosity rover, en route to Mars now, is equipped to study solar storms and might be able to detect a change in the energetic particle environment when the CME passes by.

WHILE WAITING FOR THE CME... An incoming CME of Jan. 19th (see below) has not yet arrived. Nevertheless, auroras are already dancing around the Arctic Circle. This was the scene last night over Chatanika, Alaska: Indeed, it could be a preview. NOAA forecasters are estimating as much as a 25% chance of polar geomagnetic storms when the CME arrives during the next ~36 hours. High latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras.


http://www.SolarStormWarning.com - Solar Storm Warnings from NASA (for reasons unknown) are not being taken seriously by the general public. There are hundreds of millions who are complacent, and when the time comes, will put demands on their neighbors supplies because people such as (possibly yourself) were unconcerned about providing their own lifeline, despite you had a heads up.

This is a classic example where mother nature culls people such as yourself, it's all in the natural scheme of things.

Article from NASA 2006: http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2006/10mar_stormwarning/

The solar storm of 1859, also known as the Solar Superstorm: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/06may_carringtonflare/

There seems to be some disagreement concerning CME arrival forecasts between NOAA and NASA. NOAA has pushed back the anticipated arrival time to late on 1/22 or early 1/23. According to Spaceweather.com, NASA Goddard is still projecting arrival at Earth for 1/21 @22:30 UTC. Even with a 7-hour margin of error they don't quite match up.

NOAA Enlil CME mdl: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/cme-based/

NOAA forecast:

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels during day 1 (21 January) and most of day 2 (22 January). Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels late on day 2 and day 3 (23 January) with a chance for minor storm levels due to the arrival of the halo-CME observed on 19 January. There will be a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit during the period.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/today.html

NASA cygnet streamer:: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23%2000:44:00&window=-1&cygnetId=261

3 CMEs: on the 16th, 18th and 19th

16th: http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/01/long-duration-flare-and-cme.html
the shock from the Jan 16th CME: http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/01/cme-arrives-as-expected.html

18th: http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/01/southern-cme-solar-activity-update-for.html

It is unclear if the CME from the southern region on the 18th will give a glancing blow or not or if it will merge in space with the faster CME from the 19th though, this is what we expect will happen. There has been almost triple the amount of predicted sunspots already.

There were two CMEs on the 19th within a couple of hours. Both had earth-directed elements (though they were in different general directions); but as the second was more powerful they overlapped and merged. These are the two seen on the Enlil model. More on this from the SOHO website:http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/pickoftheweek/


19th: http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/01/major-event-lde-m-flare-with-cme.html

An active region on the Sun unleashed two blasts in quick succession (Jan. 19, 2012), which have sent particle clouds headed towards Earth. The images combine the wider field of view from SOHO's C2 coronagraph with the Sun itself as seen in extreme UV light by Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The initial burst above the Sun is from the sar side of the Sun and not headed our way. The next two bursts, one quickly following the other, are from the bright active region seen near the 10 o'clock position. A series of coronal loops rise up above the active region after these events. The impact on the geomagnetic storm Earth may cause some bright auroras. The video covers about 24 hours of activity.

Solar wind prediction: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/cme-based/

Enlil CME model from NOAA: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/cme-based/



1/21/12 6.2 offshore Chiapas, Mexico

ALMOST-X FLARE AND CME (UPDATED): This morning, Jan. 23rd around 0359 UT, big sunspot 1402 erupted, producing a long-duration M9-class solar flare. The explosion's M9-ranking puts it on the threshold of being an X-flare, the most powerful kind. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the flare's extreme ultraviolet flash: The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and the STEREO-Behind spacecraft have both detected a CME rapidly emerging from the blast site. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab estimate a velocity of 2200 km. There is little doubt that the cloud is heading in the general direction of Earth. A preliminary inspection of SOHO/STEREO imagery suggests that the CME will deliver a strong glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on Jan. 24-25 as it sails mostly north of our planet.

JAN. 22ND CME IMPACT: Arriving a little later than expected, a coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field at 0617 UT on Jan. 22nd. According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME strongly compressed Earth's magnetic field and briefly exposed satellites in geosynchronous orbit to solar wind plasma. For the next 24 hours, Earth's magnetic field reverberated from the impact, stirring bright auroras around the Arctic Circle. Bjørn Jørgensen observed this display from Tromsø, Norway:

NOAA forecasters estimate a 10% - 25% chance of continued geomagnetic storms tonight as effects from the CME impact subside. The odds will increase again on Jan. 24-25 as a new CME (from today's M9-clare) approaches Earth. High-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras.

The Jan. 22nd CME also disturbed Earth's ionosphere. In Atlanta, Georgia, radio engineer Pieter Ibelings monitored a 4.5 MHz CODAR (coastal radar) signal as it bounced off layers of ionization along the US east coast. "The moment of impact can be clearly seen on the CODAR radar plot," he points out:

"The CODAR transmitters are located all around the coast and are used for mapping the ocean currents to a distance of about 200 miles," Ibelings explains. "These signals also propagate through the ionosphere so they can be picked up all around the world. The signals are almost perfect for ionospheric sounding since they are linear chirps. I capture the chirp with a receiver locked to GPS both in frequency and time. I then de-chirp the waveform so I can extract the time of arrival information at my location."

The CODAR echoes show ionization layers shifting vertical position by some hundreds of kilometers, changes that surely affected the propagation of HF radio signals in the aftermath of the impact. More information about Ibelings' observations may be found here. http://www.rfspace.com/RFSPACE/BLOG/Entries/2012/1/22_CODAR_Ionospheric_Observations_during_the_CME_Impact_of_JAN_22,_2012.html

Article:
Huge Solar Eruption Sparks Strongest Radiation Storm in 7 Years

A powerful solar eruption is expected to blast a stream of charged particles toward Earth tomorrow (Jan. 24), as the strongest radiation storm since 2005 rages on the sun. Early this morning (0359 GMT Jan. 23, which corresponds to late Sunday, Jan. 22 at 10:59 p.m. EST), NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory caught an extreme ultraviolet flash from a huge eruption on the sun , according to the skywatching website Spaceweather.com.

The solar flare spewed from sunspot 1402, a region of the sun that has become increasingly active lately. Several NASA satellites, including the Solar Dynamics Observatory, the Solar Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), and the Stereo spacecraft observed the massive sun storm. This SDO image (AIA 193) shows an M9-class solar flare erupting on the Sun's northeastern hemisphere at 03:49 UT on Jan. 23, 2012... just 4 days after a previous strong CME that sparked aurora around the world on the 22nd. More geomagnetic activity is expected for the 24th. http://www.space.com/14319-huge-solar-eruption-sparks-radiation-storm.html

From Dutch Sinse

Todays info VIDEO: http://www.youtube.com/user/dutchsinse
1/23/2012 -- Earth directed -- Large CME (coronal mass ejection) and Solar flare erupt from sun --

Vid of the solar eruption: http://www.space.com/14319-huge-solar-eruption-sparks-radiation-storm.html

CME IMPACT: As expected, a CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Jan. 24th at approximately 1500 UT (10 am EST). Geomagnetic storms are likely in the hours ahead. If it's dark where you live, go outside and look for auroras.

In Lofoton, Norway, the CME's arrival produced a surge in ground currents outside the laboratory of Rob Stammes:

"The expected CME arrived and showed up on my instruments at 15.10 UTC--a fantastic shockwave followed by a magnetic storm," says Stammes. "This could be a happy day for many aurora watchers."

The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and NASA's STEREO-B spacecraft detected a CME rapidly emerging from the blast site: movie. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth on Jan. 24 at 14:18UT (+/- 7 hours). Their animated forecast track shows that Mars is in the line of fire, too; the CME will hit the Red Planet during the late hours of Jan. 25.

This is a relatively substantial and fast-moving (2200 km/s) CME. Spacecraft in geosynchronous, polar and other orbits passing through Earth's ring current and auroral regions could be affected by the cloud's arrival. In addition, strong geomagnetic storms are possible, so high-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

The largest solar radiation outburst in six years is on its way to Earth and will hit our planet with high-energy atomic particles at around 2 pm GMT. [link to wwp.greenwichmeantime.com]

The major impact will occur in the North Pole area: routes of some near North Pole flights have been changed.

The functioning of the ISS will not be affected. Taking into consideration the prognosis for the solar storm, the ISS crew will not even have to take additional radiation security measures.

Massive ejections of plasma, or coronal mass, from the Sun have often resulted in communication and other satellites, as well as ground communications facilities failing. They can cause magnetic storms but bring no evident harm to the health of the planet’s population.

The first solar storm this year was registered on January 19 by NASA’s extra-magnetospheric satellites at the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory SOHO, Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory STEREO, and Advanced Composition Explorer ACE. Occurring after two storm-free months, that storm was ranked a relatively weak grade 5.

https://rt.com/news/solar-storm-protonic-event-551/

MORE SOLAR ACTIVITY: Sunspot AR1402, the source of this week's powerful M9-class solar flare, is acting up again. On Jan. 26th between 0100 UT and 0600 UT, a sequence of C-class magnetic eruptions around the active region hurled a bright coronal mass ejection over the sun's north pole, shown here in a coronagraph image from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory: The cloud is not heading toward Earth, at least not directly. This and future eruptions from AR1402 are unlikely to be geoeffective as the sunspot is turning away from our planet. By week's end it will be on the far side of the sun, blasting its CMEs toward planets on the opposite side of the solar system.

AURORAS OVER THE USA: The geomagnetic storm of Jan. 24th died out before night fell over North America--or did it? According to reports still trickling in, auroras were reported not only in Canada, but also in some of the lower 48 US states. More auroras could be in the offing. A solar wind stream is heading for Earth, due to arrive on Jan. 28-29. NOAA forecasters estimate a 15% chance of geomagnetic storms at high latitudes.

ASTEROID FLYBY: Newly-discovered asteroid 2012 BX34 is flying past Earth today only 77,000 km (0.2 lunar distances) away. There is no danger of a collision with the 14-meter wide space rock. Advanced amateur astronomers might be able to observe the flyby as the bus-sized asteroid brightens to 14th magnitude just before closest approach on Jan. 27th at 1530 UT. http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2012%20BX34;orb=1

Linda posted this magnificent video link on another thread: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piYiyyBxRIo&feature=uploademail
Uploaded by SolarWatcher on Jan 27, 2012
X 2 Class Solar Flare & S2 Radiation Storm
Active Region 11402 located on the northwestern limb, unleashed a major X1.7 Solar Flare at 18:35 UTC. S2 level Radiation Storm threshold has been exceeded, R3 Level Radio Blackout, 100 MeV proton spike is in progress and a 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) was reported. Immediately after this flare a Full Halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed and components may brush the earths magnetic field Jan 30th.

Earthquake Forecasting Channel
http://youtube.com/thebarcaroller
Earthquake Reporting Channel
http://www.youtube.com/user/EQReporter
solarwatcher website
http://solarwatcher.net
Soho Website
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/
Solar Soft website
http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/
WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/cme-based/
Helioviewer
http://www.helioviewer.org/
Quality Solar Website
http://www.solarham.com
Estimated Planetary K index information
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/kp_...
GOES Xray Flux Data
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5mBL.html
Sunspot Information from Solar Monitor
http://www.solarmonitor.org/
Quality Weather Website
http://www.westernpacificweather.com
Space Weather Website
http://www.spaceweather.com/

Music used is Sunshine by John Murphy

Sunspot 1402 produced a major X1.7 Solar Flare on Jan 27, 2012. A bright Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was also produced, but so far looks to be directed mostly to the northwest. Movie and Images by SDO, EVE, Lasco. FRIDAY X-FLARE: Departing sunspot 1402 unleashed an X2-class solar flare on Jan. 27th at 18:37 UT. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:


Sunspot 1402 is rotating onto the far side of the sun, so the blast site was not facing Earth at the time of the explosion. Nevertheless, energetic protons accelerated by the blast are now surrounding our planet, and an S2-class radiation storm is in progress.

The explosion also produced a spectacular coronal mass ejection (CME). A movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory shows the cloud racing away from the sun at 2500 km/s or 5.6 million mph. Work by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab shows that the CME will just miss Earth when its edge passes by our planet on Jan. 30-31. Click to view an animated forecast track:

RADIATION STORM: Accelerated by Friday's X-flare, energetic protons from the sun are still swarming around Earth on Jan. 29th. The radiation storm ranks S2 on NOAA scales, which means it is not a severe storm. Nevertheless, it can still affect spacecraft and satellites at the nuisance level. Click on the image for an animated demonstration: That was a coronagraph image from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). The many speckles and streaks are energetic protons striking SOHO's onboard digital camera. Stronger radiation storms (S4 to S5) can fill images like these with "snow," rendering them useless for normal operations. The current storm will probably subside later today and restore SOHO's clear view of the sun.

January 30, 2012 – WORLD – Space weather – variable conditions in the space surrounding Earth – has important consequences for our lives inside Earth’s atmosphere. Solar activity occurring miles outside Earth’s atmosphere, for example, can trigger magnetic storms on Earth. These storms are visually stunning, but they can set our modern infrastructure spinning. On Jan. 19, scientists saw a solar flare in an active region of the Sun, along with a concentrated blast of solar-wind plasma and magnetic field lines known as a coronal mass ejection that burst from the Sun’s surface and appeared to be headed for Earth. When these solar winds met Earth’s magnetic field, the interaction created one of the largest magnetic storms on Earth recorded in the past few years. The storm peaked on Jan. 24, just as another storm began. “These new storms, and the storm we witnessed on Sept 26, 2011, indicate the up-tick in activity coming with the Earth’s ascent into the next solar maximum,” said USGS geophysicist Jeffrey Love.” This solar maximum is the period of greatest activity in the solar cycle of the Sun, and it is predicted to occur sometime in 2013, which will increase the amount of magnetic storms on Earth. Magnetic storms, said Love, are a space weather phenomenon responsible for the breathtaking lights of the aurora borealis, but also sometimes for the disruption of technology and infrastructure our modern society depends on.

Disruptions on Earth: Large magnetic storms, for example, can interrupt radio communication, interfere with global-positioning systems, disrupt oil and gas well drilling, damage satellites and affect their operations, and even cause electrical blackouts by inducing voltage surges in electric power grids. Storms can also affects airline activity — as a result of last weekend’s storm, both Air Canada and Delta Air Lines rerouted flights over the Arctic bound for Asia as a precautionary measure. Although the storm began on the 19th of January, it did not peak until January 24th. While this particular storm had minor consequences on Earth, other large storms can be crippling, Love said. He noted that the largest storm of the 20th century occurred in March, 1989, accompanied by auroras that could be seen as far south as Texas, and sent electric currents into Earth’s crust that made their way into the high-voltage Canadian Hydro-Quebec power grid. This caused the transformer to fail and left more than 6 million people without power for 9 hours. The same storm also damaged and disrupted the operation of satellites, GPS systems, and radio communication systems used by the United States military. While large, the 1989 storm pales in comparison to one that occurred in September 1859 and is the largest storm in recorded history. Scientists estimate that the economic impact to the United States from a storm of the same size in today’s society could exceed $1 trillion as a result of the technological systems it could disrupt. The USGS, a partner in the multi-agency National Space Weather Program, collects data that can help us understand how magnetic storms may impact the United States. Constant monitoring of Earth’s magnetic field allows us to better assess the impact of these phenomena on Earth’s surface. -USGS

THE CME THAT MISSED: January 31, 2012 -As expected, a CME from last Friday's X-flare missed Earth on Jan. 30th. NOAA forecasters have downgraded the chances of strong polar geomagnetic storms during the next 24 hours to 1%.

FARSIDE ERUPTION: Sunspot AR1402, the source of last week's X-flare and many beautiful auroras, is on the farside of the sun now. Although we can't see it, the active region is still erupting. During the late hours of Jan. 31st, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory observed this coronal mass ejection flying over the sun's western limb: The cloud is heading in the direction of NASA's STEREO-Ahead spacecraft, which witnessed the explosion from directly above the sunspot. An initial inspection of the data suggests that no planets are in the line of fire.

If AR1402 hangs together for another two weeks, it will complete its transit of the farside and re-emerge on the Earthside of the sun. A return is unlikely, however, because sunspots rarely last for more than one solar rotation.

An annular eclipse occurs when the Moon passes directly in front of the sun, but the lunar disk is not quite wide enough to cover the entire star. At maximum, the Moon forms a "black hole" in the center of the sun. The “path of annularity” is a strip about 300 km wide and thousands of km long. It stretches from China and Japan, across the Pacific Ocean, to the middle of North America. In the United States, the afternoon sun will become a luminous ring in places such as Medford, Oregon; Chico, California; Reno, Nevada; St. George, Utah; Albuquerque, New Mexico, and Lubbock, Texas. Outside of this relatively narrow zone, the eclipse will be partial. Observers almost everywhere west of the Mississippi will see a crescent-shaped sun as the Moon passes by off-center.

"I like to compare different types of eclipses on a scale of 1 to 10 as visual spectacles," says NASA's leading eclipse expert, Fred Espenak of the Goddard Space Flight Center. "If a partial eclipse is a 5 then an annular eclipse is a 9."

This event should not be confused with a total eclipse. In a total eclipse, the Moon covers the entire surface of the sun, bringing an eerie twilight to observers in the path of totality and revealing the sun’s ghostly corona. The path of annularity cuts across the continental United States at sunset on May 20, 2012. A global map is also available.

Until then, May 20th of this year will have to do.

Annular eclipses have a special charm all their own. During an annular eclipse, sunbeams turn into little rings of light. The best place to see this is on the sun-dappled ground beneath a leafy tree. Hundreds of circular shadows can be found there.

You can also make a handy solar projector by criss-crossing your fingers waffle-style. Rays of light beaming through the gaps will have the same shape as the eclipsed sun.


"On that scale of 1 to 10," he adds, "a total eclipse is 'a million!' It's completely off the charts compared to any other astronomical event." The next total eclipse in the USA is in the year 2017.