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    Jenetta

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    Re: Solar Flares

    Post  Jenetta on Mon Oct 15, 2012 11:49 pm

    Hey Brook thank you for that video from NOVA...very enlightening. Hope your both well.

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    Floyd

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    Solar Flare Hoax

    Post  Floyd on Tue Oct 16, 2012 2:40 am

    It seems then, there is no reason to fear that space weather has any meaningful effect on what are interior driven geological phenomena despite the best efforts of fear mongers to spread misinformation such as Marshall Masters and Patrick Geryl amongst others who generally post nonsense supporting such baseless claims feeding needless worry and panic . There is clearly something amiss with people spreading such rubbish. The agents of the egregore of fear are many whether they realise it or not.




    This is from Joan Burkpile who is a leading expert on CME's. Anyone who is panicking about solar storms and other internet misinformation about space weather may calmly and happily heed her words in the knowledge the world is not about to end etc.

    There is no way that solar activity such as CMEs, flares and energetic particles cause geophysical catastrophes such as earthquakes, volcanoes and tsunamis.

    The most intense solar flare detected by humankind was the Carrington Storm you mention that took place in 1859. The only reason anyone even noticed it was because it generated intense auroral lights (which are beautiful and harmless) and because it disrupted our technologies of the day; specifically telegraph lines.


    The first devices (magnetometers) to directly and routinely measure the Earth's magnetic field were available in the 19th century and confirmed that the Earth's magnetic field 'rang like a bell' when the solar storm hit. That was the largest storm we know of and there were no geophysical catastrophes.



    Suffice it to say, these solar storms deposit their energy into the Earth's uppermost regions of space (the magnetosphere and ionsphere) where most of the energy is dissipated over very large volumes. This is very different from energy released abruptly in an Earthquake or volcano. That energy is provided by the heat from the Earth's interior.

    Thanks for your question. I appreciate you taking the time to write. Unfortunately, there will always be people who speak without any knowledge of the facts. I think these were the people that Abraham Lincoln spoke of when he said:
    'Tis better to be silent and be thought a fool, than to speak and remove all doubt'



    Last edited by Floyd on Tue Oct 16, 2012 2:51 am; edited 1 time in total
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    Floyd

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    Re: Solar Flares

    Post  Floyd on Tue Oct 16, 2012 2:45 am

    This from John Elliot who is an expert on the causality of earthquakes and not a youtube poster.

    "I know of no sound scientific basis nor previous evidence of a causal link between solar flares and earthquakes nor the collapse of civilisations. There are many pseudo scientists that claim various things like this, as well as planetary alignment for causing massive earthquakes, but this does not stand up to scientific scrutiny nor statistical analysis".

    Power Grids going down are neither earthquakes nor tsunamis or extinction level events for that matter.

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    lawlessline

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    Re: Solar Flares

    Post  lawlessline on Tue Oct 16, 2012 2:52 am

    Floyd wrote:Hey ho Tom

    The short answer is check out the graph above.

    The longer answer is this. If one stretched out the variables over a thousand years one may able to elicit some timing coincidences between solar activity
    and earthquakes but that does not mean the former causes the latter.

    I have a cousin who is a geologist and became a drilling engineer and I asked him about this a few years back and he basically laughed.

    For me there is no connection and volcanic and earthquake activity are caused by terrestrial and internal events and not caused by solar or celestial bodies.


    That's why I hang out with the village idiot and the local toothless simpleton lol.


    This is exactly what I mean. When the sun has a solar event even a very small one, the earth reacts to such events by bracing itself. This is shown by the Norwegian researchers during magnetic storms on space weather.com, will try and find the link to their page.

    So the idea and this is to be proven of course, is that when the earth braces itself by creating its own internal flare that responds through its magnetic field helping to defend against the harmful aspects of the solar flare. When this happens there is an increase in the earths vibrations which give rise to the possible earthquakes. Volcanoes are different and are of a very much slower evolution of the vibrations. This would have to be seen over greater periods of time. But Earthquakes are much instant access sort of thing. but as said we should look even further because the inner vibrations maybe in tune with the solar flare therefore not reating the ripples through the system and therefore an earthquake. but if the earths vibrations are in discord with the solar flare the ripples could create EQs great and small. The ringing of the bell, or the creeping of the EQs across the globe shows part of the vibrational rhythm of the earth. the rebound effect of the inner field to the outer magnetic field also creates such EQs, combine that with the incoming compression effect of the SF and the outer burst from the earth and something has to give. Not a 9 mag EQ each time for sure, but a link there is young luke, it is only time that will help us unravel the force till we understand it.

    From one village idiot to another DOH,

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    Floyd

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    Re: Solar Flares

    Post  Floyd on Tue Oct 16, 2012 3:03 am

    Yes Tom but there are no causal effects between space weather and internally driven geological activity. Its practically non existent or irrelevantly minimal at best.

    Just check out what the people who have spent the majority of their lives studying it above have to say.

    The two are basically not connected in any significant way and the pseudo scientists are having a field day saying other wise. Using their pseudo science to spread fear and panic. Utter gibberish.

    This is worth repeating from an email I received yesterday.

    "There is no way that solar activity such as CMEs, flares and energetic particles cause geophysical catastrophes such as earthquakes, volcanoes and tsunamis.

    The most intense solar flare detected by humankind was the Carrington Storm you mention that took place in 1859. The only reason anyone even noticed it was because it generated intense auroral lights (which are beautiful and harmless) and because it disrupted our technologies of the day; specifically telegraph lines.


    The first devices (magnetometers) to directly and routinely measure the Earth's magnetic field were available in the 19th century and confirmed that the Earth's magnetic field 'rang like a bell' when the solar storm hit. That was the largest storm we know of and there were no geophysical catastrophes.



    Suffice it to say, these solar storms deposit their energy into the Earth's uppermost regions of space (the magnetosphere and ionsphere) where most of the energy is dissipated over very large volumes. This is very different from energy released abruptly in an Earthquake or volcano. That energy is provided by the heat from the Earth's interior.

    Thanks for your question. I appreciate you taking the time to write. Unfortunately, there will always be people who speak without any knowledge of the facts. I think these were the people that Abraham Lincoln spoke of when he said:
    'Tis better to be silent and be thought a fool, than to speak and remove all doubt'"



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    lawlessline

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    Re: Solar Flares

    Post  lawlessline on Tue Oct 16, 2012 10:37 am

    In 2008 Nasa commented on the fact that the earth and the sun was connected directly via chords or portals that would open and shut and different times of the day or year. That the effect of the Magnetic fields of the earth and Sun are connected and that the suns magnetic field could be projected through this chords directly to earth, causing internal and external effects. Here is how the daily mail told it, for laughs.

    Specifically where the Earth and the Sun's magnetic fields connect and where the unexplained portals are formed.
    While Scudder and his team at the University if Iowa are unclear as to what the portals are yet, they have observed charged particles flowing through them, causing electro-magnetic phenomemon in the Earth's atmosphere.
    'Magnetic portals are invisible, unstable and elusive. They open and close without warning and there are no signposts to guide us in,' said Scudder.
    Some of the portals are miniscule and disappear almost instantly, while some are large and fairly stable.


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2168938/NASA-discovers-portals-space-Earth-Sun-dont-book-ticket-just-yet.html#ixzz29TbWCGu7
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook


    But this should prove that there is atleast connection between the earth geomagnetic composition and that of the sun. Don't forget Floyd the earth is just a creation of the sun, so I think there would be a greater connection than our small being could even start to understand.

    Hmmmm??????????


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    Carol
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    Re: Solar Flares

    Post  Carol on Tue Oct 16, 2012 10:54 am

    Let us also remember the effects of coronal holes on earth.

    Coronal holes are large regions in the corona that are less dense and cooler than surrounding areas. The open structure of their magnetic field allows a constant flow of high-density plasma to stream out of the holes. There is an increase in the intensity of the solar wind effects on Earth when a coronal hole faces us.

    Google http://www.google.com/#hl=en&sclient=psy-ab&q=effects+of+cornoral+holes+on+earth&oq=effects+of+cornoral+holes+on+earth&gs_l=hp.3..0i13.2881.4632.1.5259.9.9.0.0.0.0.235.1638.0j7j2.9.0.les%3Beqn%2Crate_low%3D0-035%2Crate_high%3D0-035%2Cmin_length%3D2%2Ccconf%3D1-2%2Csecond_pass%3Dfalse%2Cnum_suggestions%3D1%2Cignore_bad_origquery%3Dtrue..0.0...1c.1.A_mpg7joEs8&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.&fp=b3adb77c3375511d&bpcl=35277026&biw=1211&bih=535

    Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

    Last major update issued on October 16, 2012 at 05:35 UTC.

    [Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
    [Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
    [Solar cycles 21-24 (last update October 3, 2012)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update October 1, 2012) ]
    [Solar cycles 1-20]
    [Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update October 3, 2012)]
    [Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update October 3, 2012)]
    [Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
    [Archived reports since January 2003 (last update October 1, 2012)]

    [POES auroral activity level since October 2009 - updated October 7, 2012]
    [Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 27, 2011]

    Recent activity

    The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on October 15. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 379 and 537 km/s under the decreasing influence of a high speed stream from CH539.

    Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 136.8 (increasing 32.5 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 10 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 10.4). Three hour interval K indices: 43221022 (planetary), 33322221 (Boulder).

    The background x-ray flux was at the class B5 level.

    At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 12 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

    Region 11586 [S13W41] decayed slowly and quietly.
    Region 11589 [N12W05] decayed losing spots and penumbral area. No mature penumbra was observed.
    Region 11590 [S30E07] decayed slowly and quietly.
    Region 11591 [N07E33] decayed slowly in the trailing polarity area while small spots emerged in the leading polarity. C class flaring is still likely.
    Region 11592 [N22E07] decayed slowly and quietly.
    New region 11593 [N16E76] rotated into view.
    New region 11594 [S28E63] rotated into view on October 14 and was numbered the next day by SWPC.

    Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
    S1977 [S14W15] developed slightly and was quiet.
    New region S1986 [N22E37] emerged with a tiny spot.
    New region S1987 [N08E72] rotated into view with a tiny spot.
    New region S1988 [S15E17] emerged with a tiny spot.
    New region S1989 [S25W05] emerged with a tiny spot.

    Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

    October 13-15: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.

    Coronal holes

    Coronal hole history (since October 2002)
    Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

    A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH541) was Earth facing on October 13.

    The above coronal hole map is based on a method where coronal holes are detected automatically. While the method may need some fine tuning, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using this method, the extent and intensity of both CHs are consistent with other data sources.

    Propagation

    Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is good.

    More data and mapping at: http://www.solen.info/solar/
    Forecast

    The geomagnetic field is expected to be initially quiet on October 16. A high speed stream from CH541 could produce a few unsettled and active intervals late on October 16 and on October 17. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on October 18.


    Last edited by Carol on Tue Oct 16, 2012 11:02 am; edited 1 time in total


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    Floyd

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    Re: Solar Flares

    Post  Floyd on Tue Oct 16, 2012 11:00 am

    Interesting Tom but in terms of the OP and the topic of the thread, that is to say, pseudo science, or bad science being the basis for unqualified fear mongering regarding possible forthcoming Solar Flares and what effect they may have on earth, well there is simply no evidence to demonstrate that space weather effects geological activity and that frankly that is that.

    Certain people are using contrived pseudo scientific data to spread lies, make money and panic people. This is the issue. This is the topic.

    As you can see from one of the space weather experts who wrote to me in previous posts, the Carrington style event does not wipe out civilisation. There is no connection and there it is. They do not cause earthquakes period.In addition she has said this.


    "Fear mongering is insidious. I've been told that some people do it to bring attention to themselves without regard for the impacts of their actions".


    This from an expert on volcanoes and space weather, UK geologist Bill McGuire, on the links between solar activity and geological activity

    "This is complete nonsense, with absolutely no supporting evidence. Not only this, but the current solar cycle maximum next year is on course to be the weakest for 100 years and is likely to be followed by an extended solar minimum similar to that which led to the Little Ice Age.

    There is no specific solar storm forecast for next May. Current expertise does not permit such long-range forecasting".


    It would be rather brazen of us to deny scientific facts as we have them as others have done top make money an to misinform.

    Whilst there may be a relationship between our sun and the magnetics of this planet, that relationship is not responsible for geological changes which as you can see are leading experts are telling us interior driven.

    The fearmongers therefore have not a leg to stand on. Not a sausage and their theories are not worth taking seriously.

    Its as easy as ABC. Space weather does not cause geological activity and we need not fear the forecast Solar Flares that may or may not happen next year as even if they did occur they would not be the cause of any civilisation ending volcanoes or tsunamis a la Patrick Geryl lol.

    There are no two ways about it.

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    Carol
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    Re: Solar Flares

    Post  Carol on Tue Oct 16, 2012 11:05 am

    Holes in Sun's Surface Affect Earth's Climate
    http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=1145
    Brooklyn, NY -- An unusual interdisciplinary study by astronomers and climatologists has found a striking correlation between holes in the outermost layer of the sun -- or the corona -- and the globally averaged temperature of the Earth, suggesting that the Earth's atmospheric temperature may be strongly linked to solar magnetism changes over months or years.In a paper that appears in the February 28 issue of the journal New Astronomy, climatologist Eric Posmentier of Long Island University's Brooklyn Campus, solar physicists Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and physicist Pius Okeke of the University of Nigeria chart temperature anomalies seen in the Earth's lower troposphere (i.e., the region of atmosphere in which we live) using Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometers aboard weather satellites.

    The scientists compared the Earth's temperature with the size of coronal holes reported on the Sun during a two-decade period, starting in January 1979 and ending April 1998. Results show a clear drop in terrestrial atmospheric temperature after the Sun's magnetic field activity is most intense. At this point, there is a dropping off of magnetic activity and an enlargement of the coronal holes. "This is the first time anyone has combined these modern, reliable data sets to link solar activity and climate, and to cite several alternative mechanisms that might explain this link," Posmentier explained.

    Coronal holes are, literally, gaps in the Sun's outer atmosphere through which the stream of hot, supersonic particles known as the solar wind pours out into space to engulf the entire planetary system. At Earth, this hot bath of charged particles produces the aurorae (i.e., the aurora borealis), interferes with electrical and radio transmissions, and may threaten passengers aboard high-flying airliners or astronauts aboard unshielded spacecraft. The solar wind has also been long suspected as a possible indirect contributor to terrestrial climate change.

    Posmentier and colleagues think that the connection between the solar wind and climate may be more direct, suggesting that the charged particles hitting the Earth's atmosphere may affect the properties of terrestrial water clouds, particularly the percentage of those clouds covering the Earth. In turn, significant changes in the cloud cover influence the temperature of the lower troposphere, with temperatures falling with increased cloud cover. Another possibility is that the charged particles change ozone chemistry in the upper atmosphere, in turn affecting the dynamics of the climate...


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    Carol
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    Re: Solar Flares

    Post  Carol on Tue Oct 16, 2012 11:07 am

    Solar Wind's Effect on Earth

    http://www.teachersdomain.org/resource/ess05.sci.ess.eiu.solarwind/
    The Sun produces a solar wind — a continuous flow of charged particles — that can affect us on Earth. It can, for example, disrupt communications, navigation systems, and satellites. Solar activity can also cause power outages, such as the extensive Canadian blackout in 1989. In this video segment adapted from NASA, learn about solar storms and their effects on Earth.


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    Floyd

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    Re: Solar Flares

    Post  Floyd on Tue Oct 16, 2012 11:09 am

    The above Carol, does not do anything to show causal relationships between space weather and geological activity. That is mostly because they dont exist.

    Power grids going down are not volcanoes erupting or plates shifting.
    Disruption to communications and satellites are not tsunamis or any other geological phenomena.
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    Carol
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    Re: Solar Flares

    Post  Carol on Tue Oct 16, 2012 11:14 am


    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_wind
    Solar wind
    The solar wind is a stream of charged particles ejected from the upper atmosphere of the Sun. It mostly consists of electrons and protons with energies usually between 1.5 and 10 keV. The stream of particles varies in temperature and speed over time. These particles can escape the Sun's gravity because of their high kinetic energy and the high temperature of the corona.
    The solar wind creates the heliosphere, an enormous bubble in the interstellar medium that surrounds the Solar System. Other phenomena include geomagnetic storms that can knock out power grids on Earth, the aurorae (northern and southern lights), and the plasma tails of comets that always point away from the Sun.
    Coronal mass ejection
    Main article: Coronal mass ejection
    Both the fast and slow solar wind can be interrupted by large, fast-moving bursts of plasma called interplanetary coronal mass ejections, or ICMEs. ICMEs are the interplanetary manifestation of solar coronal mass ejections, which are caused by release of magnetic energy at the Sun. CMEs are often called "solar storms" or "space storms" in the popular media. They are sometimes, but not always, associated with solar flares, which are another manifestation of magnetic energy release at the Sun. ICMEs cause shock waves in the thin plasma of the heliosphere, launching electromagnetic waves and accelerating particles (mostly protons and electrons) to form showers of ionizing radiation that precede the CME.

    When a CME impacts the Earth's magnetosphere, it temporarily deforms the Earth's magnetic field, changing the direction of compass needles and inducing large electrical ground currents in Earth itself; this is called a geomagnetic storm and it is a global phenomenon. CME impacts can induce magnetic reconnection in Earth's magnetotail (the midnight side of the magnetosphere); this launches protons and electrons downward toward Earth's atmosphere, where they form the aurora.

    ICMEs are not the only cause of space weather. Different patches on the Sun are known to give rise to slightly different speeds and densities of wind depending on local conditions. In isolation, each of these different wind streams would form a spiral with a slightly different angle, with fast-moving streams moving out more directly and slow-moving streams wrapping more around the Sun. Fast moving streams tend to overtake slower streams that originate westward of them on the Sun, forming turbulent co-rotating interaction regions that give rise to wave motions and accelerated particles, and that affect Earth's magnetosphere in the same way as, but more gently than, CMEs.

    The solar wind is responsible for the overall shape of Earth's magnetosphere, and fluctuations in its speed, density, direction, and entrained magnetic field strongly affect Earth's local space environment. For example, the levels of ionizing radiation and radio interference can vary by factors of hundreds to thousands; and the shape and location of the magnetopause and bow shock wave upstream of it can change by several Earth radii, exposing geosynchronous satellites to the direct solar wind. These phenomena are collectively called space weather.

    much more at link http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_wind


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    Carol
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    Re: Solar Flares

    Post  Carol on Tue Oct 16, 2012 11:21 am

    Coronal Holes - Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics PDF
    https://www.cfa.harvard.edu/~scranmer/Preprints/eaaa_holes.pdf



    How a weather lull on the sun affects Earth
    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43402219/ns/technology_and_science-space/t/how-weather-lull-sun-affects-earth/#.UH2IIbRZVzQ
    The study found that many magnetic changes on Earth are indeed strongly linked to the solar activity cycle, though not in perfect synchrony, and it can help scientists map out some causes. The speed of the solar wind — the 1-million-mph stream of particles coming from the sun — as well as the strength and direction of the magnetic fields embedded in it helped produce the low readings on our planet, researchers said.



    Quick Start to 2011’s Strong Earthquakes
    http://inter-intelligence-communications.com/?tag=coronal-hole
    Thursday, January 13th, 2011
    With five mag 7+ earthquakes in less than a month, here’s another look at correlations between an active Sun and seismicity here on Earth:


    The current auroral oval is bright and lopsided. Image from Spaceweather.

    Large earthquakes of magnitude 7 and above have been increasing dramatically since the Haiti quake of 12 January 2010, with three occurring in just the first couple of weeks of 2011. While I don’t believe these large quakes will continue at the current rate, early indications suggest we could be on target to see record numbers as the year progresses.

    (Update 18 January 2011: Today’s quake in Pakistan, which again just precedes the incoming solar wind due to arrive on the 19th or 20th, brings us to 4 mag 7+ quakes in 2011, and 6 in less than a month. )

    A list of yearly magnitude-7+ earthquakes since the last solar minimum in 1996 can be found in the article More Links Among the Sun, Earthquakes, and Mine Explosions. As predicted in that article, published 17 June, we were on target to see more than 20 quakes in excess of mag 7 by the end of the year. In fact, according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), 22 mag 7+ quakes were recorded during 2010.

    Today’s quake in the Loyalty Islands, variously reported at between mag 7 and 7.3, directly precedes the solar wind that is set to hit Earth in the next day or so. I’ve noted before that that incoming solar wind effects geomagnetic changes, often resulting in earthquakes, when it impacts our planet’s magnetosphere just prior to the wind’s actual arrival on Earth.

    Each earthquake is different and may be precipitated by any number of factors aside from solar activity; however, evidence for a causal relationship between the Sun and some seismic activity continues to emerge. Aside from large coronal holes and solar eruptions, other indicators I monitor at the Spaceweather website include: 1) solar wind, which tends toward high speed and low density just before and during many seismically-active days, and 2) the auroral oval, which is often thick and strongly-lopsided on approach of solar wind and CMEs, predicting geomagnetic disturbances.

    STACE TUSSEL

    NOTE: Depictions of the auroral oval from several key earthquake dates in 2010 are currently missing, for unknown reasons, from the Spaceweather archives.


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    Floyd

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    Re: Solar Flares

    Post  Floyd on Tue Oct 16, 2012 11:31 am

    Carol I suggest you read these as you may have missed them.


    Solar flares or space weather do not cause geological actions on earth.cheers

    This is a lie spread by pseudo scientists, misinformes and fearmongers

    Its far to easy to copy and paste articles or post youtube videos by others so I took the time to write to the worlds leading experts in the field of vulcanology, space weather and geology. I will collate their responses here for you.

    I know of no sound scientific basis nor previous evidence of a causal link between solar flares and earthquakes nor the collapse of civilisations. There are many pseudo scientists that claim various things like this, as well as planetary alignment for causing massive earthquakes, but this does not stand up to scientific scrutiny nor statistical analysis.

    John Elliot

    "Thank you for your question and for your interest in this subject.

    Regarding your question, I am inclined to agree with your assessment that severe space weather effects cannot cause severely damaging geological activity, such as earthquakes or tsunamis. The term “geophysical” can include the Earth’s atmosphere, which is affected by space weather.

    My understanding is that civilization-destroying geological phenomena, such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, are caused by activity below the Earth’s surface: via plate-tectonics and so forth. Space weather at Earth is exclusively an atmospheric phenomenon: i.e. above the Earth’s surface. I have seen no evidence that suggests that space weather phenomena are capable of penetrating the Earth’s surface to such an extent as to cause severe earthquakes or volcanic eruptions. Not even on the planet Mercury, which is severely affected by space weather does this appear to be the case.

    The Carrington event was caused by the arrival of an extremely fast coronal mass ejection at the Earth. It disrupted telegraph wires but in no way destroyed civilization. While we are much more dependent on micro- and nano-technology than we were in the 1850s, it is unlikely that such an event occurring even today will end civilization. It may cause many billions of dollars of damage and severely disrupt out modern technological systems, and maybe even damage some power stations. While lives may be lost and fortunes ruined, I doubt it would be so catastrophic to cause the destruction of a civilization.

    Planetary alignments come and go as they have done since the dawn of history. While I cannot say for certain that such an alignment has absolutely no effect whatsoever, the gravitational effects of any such alignment would be insufficient to create anything on the scale that you are suggesting.

    Regarding the significance of the years 2012-2013, it is true that next year we will likely reach the maximum in the current cycle of solar activity (we call it Cycle 24). During this time the Sun will experience a larger rate of solar flares, coronal mass ejections and so-forth. However, this particular solar cycle has proven to be a relatively inactive one. If you go to http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/ you will see that the sunspot number (what we currently use to gauge solar activity) is expected to reach only around 70% of the number at the last solar maximum. We measure geomagnetic storms by the so-called Dst index which is a negative number: a small magnetic storm occurs when Dst reaches around -100 nT, a medium storm is when it is around -150 nT and a large storm is less than around -200 nT. Dst has reached -100 only six times since 2006. It has reached -150 nT only once in that time. All evidence points to the very likely possibility that the current solar cycle will not produce any significant geomagnetic activity at the Earth. The chances of a Carrington-like event occurring is therefore extremely low.

    In summary, based on all that we know of the Sun, I draw the following conclusions:

    1. That space weather cannot produce significant geological activity;

    2. That the current solar cycle is not likely to produce a Carrington event;

    3. That even if a Carrington event were to occur, it is not likely to destroy civilization.


    Dr. Tim Howard

    "This is complete nonsense, with absolutely no supporting evidence. Not only this, but the current solar cycle maximum next year is on course to be the weakest for 100 years and is likely to be followed by an extended solar minimum similar to that which led to the Little Ice Age.
    There is no specific solar storm forecast for next May. Current expertise does not permit such long-range forecasting."


    Bill McGuire

    There is no way that solar activity such as CMEs, flares and energetic particles cause geophysical catastrophes such as earthquakes, volcanoes and tsunamis. The most intense solar flare detected by humankind was the Carrington Storm you mention that took place in 1859. The only reason anyone even noticed it was because it generated intense auroral lights (which are beautiful and harmless) and because it disrupted our technologies of the day; specifically telegraph lines. The first devices (magnetometers) to directly and routinely measure the Earth's magnetic field were available in the 19th century and confirmed that the Earth's magnetic field 'rang like a bell' when the solar storm hit. That was the largest storm we know of and there were no geophysical catastrophes.
    Suffice it to say, these solar storms deposit their energy into the Earth's uppermost regions of space (the magnetosphere and ionsphere) where most of the energy is dissipated over very large volumes. This is very different from energy released abruptly in an Earthquake or volcano. That energy is provided by the heat from the Earth's interior.

    Thanks for your question. I appreciate you taking the time to write. Unfortunately, there will always be people who speak without any knowledge of the facts. I think these were the people that Abraham Lincoln spoke of when he said:
    'Tis better to be silent and be thought a fool, than to speak and remove all doubt'

    Fear mongering is insidious. I've been told that some people do it to bring attention to themselves without regard for the impacts of their actions. Pathetic."


    Joan Burkpile


    I will add more responses from people who know what they are talkinig about as and when.
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    Carol
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    Re: Solar Flares

    Post  Carol on Tue Oct 16, 2012 12:25 pm

    Well there are lots of different opinions and viewpoints including the following:


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=woVitezc-zU&feature=player_embedded


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    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
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    Floyd

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    Re: Solar Flares

    Post  Floyd on Tue Oct 16, 2012 12:29 pm

    Yes and I know who I would rather listen to. Many view points but only one is solid.

    This youtube videos does nothing to prove there is a link between space weather and internal geological activity. If that was its purpose it is useless. As many youtube videos are.

    As for the fear mongers....
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    Brook

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    Re: Solar Flares

    Post  Brook on Thu Oct 18, 2012 9:08 pm

    That space weather cannot produce significant geological activity

    First from me:

    NO this is not some doomsday generated fear mongering. However.....this statement is not quite correct and evidence and highly funded research is working to find out the answers that no one really has...not yet anyway. I have no idea who this latest Patrick guy is...and quite frankly could care less. But Space weather can indeed effect geological activity.

    From the library at Cornell University and work funded by NASA Peer reviewed and from scientists all around the globe.



    "At the same time, in spite of the fact that the axion mechanism of solar dynamo-geodynamo connection explains well the strong negative correlation between the magnetic field of the solar tachocline zone and the Earth magnetic field from the physical standpoint, it can not explain other correlations in Figure 1 (between the magnetic field of the solar tachocline zone and variations of the Earth angular velocity, average global ocean level and the number of large earthquakes with the magnitude M≥7) from the energy standpoint. However, under certain conditions, i.e. within the framework of the hypothesis of natural nuclear georeactor existence on the boundary of the liquid and solid phases of the Earth core [16, 17], the axion mechanism can effectively provide these correlations."

    http://arxiv.org/pdf/1101.2221.pdf



    The authors thank Spiro K. Antiochos and Tamas I. Gombosi for constructive discussions
    and comments. This work was supported by NASA grant NNG06GD62G, NNX07AC16G and
    NSF grant ATM 0642309 and AGS 1023735. W. M. IV was also funded by NASA grant LWS
    NNX09AJ78G. W. P. A. was supported in part by NASA LWS TR&T award NNX08AQ30G,
    and the Heliophysics Theory Program, under NASA grant NNX08AI56G-04/11

    http://arxiv.org/pdf/1205.3764.pdf

    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    Volcano-electromagnetic effects—electromagnetic (EM) signals generated by volcanic activity—derive from a variety of physical processes.
    These include piezomagnetic effects, electrokinetic effects, fluid vaporization, thermal demagnetization/remagnetization, resistivity changes, thermochemical effects, magnetohydrodynamic effects, and blast-excited
    traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs). Identification of different
    physical processes and their interdependence is often possible with multiparameter monitoring, now common on volcanoes, since many of these
    processes occur with different timescales and some are simultaneously
    identified in other geophysical data (deformation, seismic, gas, ionospheric disturbances, etc.). EM monitoring plays an important part in
    understanding these processes.

    https://profile.usgs.gov/myscience/upload_folder/ci2010Nov2221320042871158.pdf


    http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/msl/multimedia/hassler02.html


    New evidence from NASA's Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft supports a long-held suspicion that much of the Red Planet's atmosphere was simply blown away -- by the solar wind.
    Right, above: Earth is shielded from the solar wind by a magnetic bubble extending 50,000 km into space -- our planet's magnetosphere. Right, below: Without a substantial magnetosphere to protect it, much of Mars's atmosphere is exposed directly to fast-moving particles from the Sun. [more ]
    The solar wind is a fast-moving part of the Sun's outer atmosphere. The solar corona, with a temperature greater than one million degrees C, is so hot that the Sun's gravity can't hold it down. It flows away in all directions traveling 400 to 800 km/s. Every planet in the solar system is immersed in this gusty breeze of charged particles.
    Here on Earth we're protected from the solar wind by a global magnetic field (the same one that causes compass needles to point north). Our planet's magnetosphere , which extends far out into space, deflects solar wind ions before they penetrate to the atmosphere below.

    Mars isn't so fortunate. Lacking a planet-wide magnetic field, most of the Red Planet is exposed to the full force of the incoming solar wind. "The Martian atmosphere extends hundreds of kilometers above the surface where it's ionized by solar ultraviolet radiation," says Dave Mitchell, a space scientist at the University of California at Berkeley. "The magnetized solar wind simply picks up these ions and sweeps them away."
    "In 1989 the Soviet Phobos probe made direct measurements of the atmospheric erosion," he continued. When the spacecraft passed through the solar wind wake behind Mars, onboard instruments detected ions that had been stripped from Mars's atmosphere and were flowing downstream with the solar wind. "If we extrapolate those Phobos measurements 4 billion years backwards in time, solar wind erosion can account for most of the planet's lost atmosphere."
    "To calculate the total loss of atmosphere," he added, "we must take into account how the Sun has changed during the past four billion years. The Sun's ultraviolet output was larger in the past, and the solar wind was probably much stronger. This means that solar wind erosion was likely much more effective in the past than it is today."
    Although Mars no longer has a substantial magnetosphere, scientists think it once did and that the remnants of it still exist. In 1998 magnetometers on MGS discovered a network of magnetic loops arrayed across Mars's southern hemisphere. Locally, the magnetic fields arch over the surface like umbrellas, hundreds of km high. "If you were standing on Mars in one of these areas," says Mitchell, "you would measure a magnetic field about as strong as Earth's -- a few tenths of a gauss." Elsewhere on the planet the magnetic field is 100 to 1000 times weaker.


    http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2001/ast31jan_1/



    The vertical component (Z) of the geomagnetic field observed by ground-based observatories of
    the INTERMAGNET network has been used to analyze the effects of the movement of electrically conducting sea water through the geomagnetic field due to a propagation of a tsumani. The
    purpose of this work is to study the geomagnetic variations induced by the tsunamis occurred at
    26 December, 2004, 27 February, 2010 and 11 March, 2011. For each case study, we selected
    four magnetic stations belonging to the INTERMAGNET programme that were influenced or
    more direct affected by the tsumani. To detect these disturbances in the geomagnetic data, the
    discrete wavelet technique have been used in four levels of decomposition. We were able to
    detect the localized behavior of the geomagnetic variations induced by the movement of electrically conducting sea-water through the geomagnetic field, i. e., the identification of transients
    related to the tsunamis. As well, using the minutely magnetogram data, it was able to localize
    the initial phase and time of the tsunami maximum height. The first interpretation of the results
    suggests that discrete wavelet transform can be used to characterize the tsumani effects on the
    geomagnetic field, but need further study.

    http://arxiv.org/pdf/1108.4893.pdf



    Last edited by Brook on Thu Oct 18, 2012 9:56 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Brook

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    Re: Solar Flares

    Post  Brook on Thu Oct 18, 2012 9:26 pm

    Jenetta wrote:Hey Brook thank you for that video from NOVA...very enlightening. Hope your both well.

    ____________________________


    You're welcome Jenetta....we are well thank you.
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    Floyd

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    Do Solar Flares cause Earthquakes?

    Post  Floyd on Fri Oct 19, 2012 2:59 am

    The purpose of this thread was to help to demonstrate that there are no direct causal links between, CME's, Solar Flares and tsunamis, volcanoes, earthquakes and cataclysmic events that destroy civilisations en masse. These are the claims made by some in relation to solar flares originally forecast for the end of this year (hence the 2012 end of the world connection)but now may or may not happen next year with one expert saying they will be weak and another saying it is too difficult to forecast.

    The fearmongering surrounding this pseudo science 'it is the end', permanently posted in YouTube videos and message boards is complete and utter nonsense. That is the point.

    Additionally some are claiming this possible solar event may be as strong as the Carrington Event of September 1959 equating it with similar doomsday nonsense. There were no significant earthquakes at the time of this event and furthermore civilisation was not destroyed. Whilst power grids may go down and communications etc effected for a period of time it is decidedly not the end of the world. Humanity will not be wiped out because of this.

    Solar activity does effect the atmosphere and magnetics of the planet in various ways but they are most definitely not the cause of geophysical activity such as earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanoes. Solar storms do not cause these things to happen. The extracts provided by the poster above are not evidence of Solar storms or CME's being the cause earthquakes and Tsunamis etc. Pseudo scientists are making this claim, people like Patrick Geryl to prove that the forecast Solar Flares will help bring about the end of this world at the end of the year with only a few survivors remaining. Fear marketing.

    So Do Solar Flares cause Earthquakes, Tsunamis volcanoes and civilisation destroying events and is this likely to happen. That is what I am questioning. This is the subject at hand.

    The experts on CME's and geology who have written back to me on asking this very subject have provided me with conclusive answers.

    I will repeat them just so they sinkhole(parden the pun)in this time.

    "Regarding your question, I am inclined to agree with your assessment that severe space weather effects cannot cause severely damaging geological activity, such as earthquakes or tsunamis. The term “geophysical” can include the Earth’s atmosphere, which is affected by space weather.

    My understanding is that civilization-destroying geological phenomena, such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, are caused by activity below the Earth’s surface: via plate-tectonics and so forth. Space weather at Earth is exclusively an atmospheric phenomenon: i.e. above the Earth’s surface. I have seen no evidence that suggests that space weather phenomena are capable of penetrating the Earth’s surface to such an extent as to cause severe earthquakes or volcanic eruptions. Not even on the planet Mercury, which is severely affected by space weather does this appear to be the case".



    "This is complete nonsense, with absolutely no supporting evidence. Not only this, but the current solar cycle maximum next year is on course to be the weakest for 100 years and is likely to be followed by an extended solar minimum similar to that which led to the Little Ice Age.
    There is no specific solar storm forecast for next May. Current expertise does not permit such long-range forecasting."



    "There is no way that solar activity such as CMEs, flares and energetic particles cause geophysical catastrophes such as earthquakes, volcanoes and tsunamis. The most intense solar flare detected by humankind was the Carrington Storm you mention that took place in 1859. The only reason anyone even noticed it was because it generated intense auroral lights (which are beautiful and harmless) and because it disrupted our technologies of the day; specifically telegraph lines. The first devices (magnetometers) to directly and routinely measure the Earth's magnetic field were available in the 19th century and confirmed that the Earth's magnetic field 'rang like a bell' when the solar storm hit. That was the largest storm we know of and there were no geophysical catastrophes.
    Suffice it to say, these solar storms deposit their energy into the Earth's uppermost regions of space (the magnetosphere and ionsphere) where most of the energy is dissipated over very large volumes. This is very different from energy released abruptly in an Earthquake or volcano. That energy is provided by the heat from the Earth's interior".


    So do Do Solar Flares cause Earthquakes tsunamis and volcanoes? The heading of the thread is - Solar Flares:Will solar flares destroy Earth?
    Is there any evidence to suggest solar activity is the cause of such geological pheneomena like earthquakes? Do they wipe out civilisations? Will a solar storm similar in strength to the Carrington Event help to wipe out humanity?


    The answer to these four questions as you can clearly see is No, no, no and no.

    cheers


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    Brook

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    Re: Solar Flares

    Post  Brook on Fri Oct 19, 2012 4:43 am

    From August 25th 2011


    'Climate models will need to be substantially revised'

    New atomsmasher research into cloud formation


    CERN's 8,000 scientists may not be able to find the hypothetical Higgs boson, but they have made an important contribution to climate physics, prompting climate models to be revised.

    The first results from the lab's CLOUD ("Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets") experiment published in Nature today confirm that cosmic rays spur the formation of clouds through ion-induced nucleation. Current thinking posits that half of the Earth's clouds are formed through nucleation. The paper is entitled Role of sulphuric acid, ammonia and galactic cosmic rays in atmospheric aerosol nucleation.

    This has significant implications for climate science because water vapour and clouds play a large role in determining global temperatures. Tiny changes in overall cloud cover can result in relatively large temperature changes.

    Unsurprisingly, it's a politically sensitive topic, as it provides support for a "heliocentric" rather than "anthropogenic" approach to climate change: the sun plays a large role in modulating the quantity of cosmic rays reaching the upper atmosphere of the Earth.

    CERN's director-general Rolf-Dieter Heuer warned his scientists "to present the results clearly but not interpret them". Readers can judge whether CLOUD's lead physicist Jasper Kirkby has followed his boss's warning.

    "Ion-induced nucleation will manifest itself as a steady production of new particles that is difficult to isolate in atmospheric observations because of other sources of variability but is nevertheless taking place and could be quite large when averaged globally over the troposphere."

    Kirkby is quoted in the accompanying CERN press release:

    "We've found that cosmic rays significantly enhance the formation of aerosol particles in the mid troposphere and above. These aerosols can eventually grow into the seeds for clouds. However, we've found that the vapours previously thought to account for all aerosol formation in the lower atmosphere can only account for a small fraction of the observations – even with the enhancement of cosmic rays."

    The team used the Proton Synchotron accelerator (pictured here with Kirkby) to examine the nucleation using combinations of trace gasses at various temperatures, with precision. These first results confirm that cosmic rays increase the formation of cloud-nuclei by a factor of 10 in the troposphere, but additional trace gasses are needed nearer the surface.

    Climate models will have to be revised, confirms CERN in supporting literature (pdf):

    "[I]t is clear that the treatment of aerosol formation in climate models will need to be substantially revised, since all models assume that nucleation is caused by these vapours [sulphuric acid and ammonia] and water alone.

    The work involves over 60 scientists in 17 countries.

    Veteran science editor Nigel Calder, who brought the theory to wide public attention with the book The Chilling Stars, co-authored with the father of the theory Henrik Svensmark, has an explanation and background on his blog, here, and offers possible reasons on why the research, mooted in the late 1990s, has taken so long.

    Svensmark, who is no longer involved with the CERN experiment, says he believes the solar-cosmic ray factor is just one of four factors in climate. The other three are: volcanoes, a "regime shift" that took place in 1977, and residual anthropogenic components.

    When Dr Kirkby first described the theory in 1998, he suggested cosmic rays "will probably be able to account for somewhere between a half and the whole of the increase in the Earth's temperature that we have seen in the last century."

    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/08/25/cern_cloud_cosmic_ray_first_results/


    http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v476/n7361/full/nature10343.html

    http://cloud.web.cern.ch/cloud/
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    Floyd

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    Re: Solar Flares

    Post  Floyd on Fri Oct 19, 2012 4:58 am

    That extract does not provide evidence that solar flares are the direct cause of tsunamis, earthquakes, volcanoes. Nor does it provide evidence that Solar Flares are responsible for destroying civilisations. Which of course they are not.

    As you can see, the worlds leading minds on the subject say there is neither sufficient evidence nor supporting statistics demonstrating that this is the case.

    Perhaps they are deluded or misguided when they say there is no evidence to prove such a thing. Im sure they would be aware of it if there was any substantial evidence for this and thus their replies to me on the subject would be a lot different.

    As it stands Solar flares are not the cause of earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanoes or civilisation ending events. That's not from me that's from leading experts with current and up to date scientific data.
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    lawlessline

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    Re: Solar Flares

    Post  lawlessline on Fri Oct 19, 2012 2:51 pm

    Floyd wrote:

    "Fear mongering is insidious. I've been told that some people do it to bring attention to themselves without regard for the impacts of their actions".


    This from an expert on volcanoes and space weather, UK geologist Bill McGuire, on the links between solar activity and geological activity

    "This is complete nonsense, with absolutely no supporting evidence. Not only this, but the current solar cycle maximum next year is on course to be the weakest for 100 years and is likely to be followed by an extended solar minimum similar to that which led to the Little Ice Age.

    There is no specific solar storm forecast for next May. Current expertise does not permit such long-range forecasting".



    I think this is one side of half of the problem, in fact we have both sides with the fear mongering. The lack of solar flares can trigger as many EQs as a higher volume. This is due to the expansion and reduction process of the breathing of the our planet. When we have low activity there is an increase in the internal temperature. compressing the magnetic field. leaving the outer crusts to grow. To grow there must be EQs. The flares could produce a small affect on the earth as a whole, but rather as a de blocking process from within, therefore creating the EQs.

    I think, and to get back on topic, that we need the fear hordes and the strict on the level educationalists. Then we, as non point of view to defend can make a balanced choice as to the real situation. This is the evolutionary aspect of human remembering process.


    Brook Sooooooo good to see you here since such time love to you.

    Lawless
    t
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    Floyd

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    Re: Solar Flares

    Post  Floyd on Fri Oct 19, 2012 3:27 pm

    lawlessline wrote:
    Floyd wrote:

    "Fear mongering is insidious. I've been told that some people do it to bring attention to themselves without regard for the impacts of their actions".


    This from an expert on volcanoes and space weather, UK geologist Bill McGuire, on the links between solar activity and geological activity

    "This is complete nonsense, with absolutely no supporting evidence. Not only this, but the current solar cycle maximum next year is on course to be the weakest for 100 years and is likely to be followed by an extended solar minimum similar to that which led to the Little Ice Age.

    There is no specific solar storm forecast for next May. Current expertise does not permit such long-range forecasting".



    I think, and to get back on topic, that we need the fear hordes and the strict on the level educationalists. Then we, as non point of view to defend can make a balanced choice as to the real situation. This is the evolutionary aspect of human remembering process.


    Lawless
    t

    There is no need to fear science Tom. Its not as nasty as some try to make out.
    We are all glued into this planet. What we do on this Earth counts. We make the difference.

    Pseudo science is often an ideologically and politically motivated beast without sound scientific basis.

    But we can all rest assured that Solar storms do not cause earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanoes or civilisation ending events. Why? The evidence for it does not exist.

    That is why the fearmongers and certain poltical idealists will fail.


    Last edited by Floyd on Fri Oct 19, 2012 3:43 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    magamud

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    Re: Solar Flares

    Post  magamud on Fri Oct 19, 2012 3:39 pm

    Floyd are you saying the suns behavior does not effect the earths?
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    Floyd

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    Re: Solar Flares

    Post  Floyd on Fri Oct 19, 2012 3:43 pm

    lol!

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    Re: Solar Flares

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