tMoA

~ The only Home on the Web You'll ever need ~


    INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL PROGRESS REPORT - part 2

    Share
    avatar
    Carol
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 20740
    Join date : 2010-04-07
    Location : Hawaii

    INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL PROGRESS REPORT - part 2

    Post  Carol on Wed Jun 08, 2016 10:03 pm

    Continued from: http://www.themistsofavalon.net/t8641-international-financial-progress-report-part-1


    China gives US $38 bn investment quota, deepens ties
    http://www.chinaeconomicreview.com/china-gives-us-38-bn-investment-quota-deepens-ties


    China approves $15bn of green bonds to fight pollution
    http://www.chinaeconomicreview.com/china-approves-15bn-green-bonds-fight-pollution?


    GCC measures not enough to address revenue shortfall - IMF's Christine Lagarde
    http://www.zawya.com/mena/en/economy/story/ZAWYA20160608174540/


    Yuan Going Global: China Grants US First Renminbi Investment Quota
    http://sputniknews.com/business/20160608/1040983986/us-china-yuan-investment.html


    Beijing Launches Renminbi Bonds on NY & London Exchanges
    http://sputniknews.com/world/20160526/1040305101/china-yuan-bonds-london-newyork.html#ixzz4B1e0ve00


    China Weakens Yuan to 2011 Low, Stirring Currency War Concern
    http://sputniknews.com/business/20160525/1040212490/china-yuan-rate.html#ixzz4B1fXZca9


    Oklahoma HP Uses New Device To Seize Money Used During The Commission Of A Crime
    http://www.news9.com/story/32168555/ohp-uses-new-device-to-seize-money-used-during-the-commission-of-a-crime


    Last edited by Carol on Sat Jul 09, 2016 11:44 am; edited 6 times in total


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
    avatar
    Carol
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 20740
    Join date : 2010-04-07
    Location : Hawaii

    Re: INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL PROGRESS REPORT - part 2

    Post  Carol on Wed Jun 08, 2016 10:08 pm

    "The Whole Shebang Is Broke" - The Only Thing That's Growing Is Debt
    That’s really all you need to know. That’s what broke the shebang. It is easy. And even if a bit more of the ‘surplus’ debt had been allowed to go towards the common man, it wouldn’t have made much difference. We’ve replaced growth with debt, because that is the only way to keep the -illusion of- the politico-economic system going, and thereby the only way for the incumbent powers to cling on to that power.


    And that is where the danger lies. It’s not just that the vast majority of westerners will become much poorer than they are now, they will be forced to face powers-that-be that face the threat of seeing their powers -both political and economic- slip sliding away and themselves heading towards some sort of Marie-Antoinette model.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-08/whole-shebang-broke-only-thing-thats-growing-debt


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
    avatar
    Carol
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 20740
    Join date : 2010-04-07
    Location : Hawaii

    Re: INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL PROGRESS REPORT - part 2

    Post  Carol on Thu Jun 09, 2016 11:44 am

    EBT Card Outage?: It Is 8 Days Into June And Many Americans Are STILL Waiting For Food Stamp Money
    http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/ebt-card-outage-it-is-8-days-into-june-and-many-americans-are-still-waiting-for-food-stamp-money


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
    avatar
    Carol
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 20740
    Join date : 2010-04-07
    Location : Hawaii

    Re: INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL PROGRESS REPORT - part 2

    Post  Carol on Thu Jun 09, 2016 8:37 pm

    Criminal Cops Use Tech Gadget to Steal More of Your Money
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Shtm2x8IL4


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
    avatar
    Carol
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 20740
    Join date : 2010-04-07
    Location : Hawaii

    Re: INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL PROGRESS REPORT - part 2

    Post  Carol on Thu Jun 09, 2016 8:41 pm

    Dear CIGAs,


    For more than three years we have watched the COMEX very closely. The initial clue to begin watching were the waterfall events where the amounts of paper gold and silver sold simply dwarfed what was being mined. I have said many times after the smackdowns, “first, no one has this much (gold or silver), second, no trader would ever sell in this fashion and destroy the price he will receive for the sale. Clearly the sales were done to affect price downward”. Each time I have written on this topic and suggested it would ultimately end with a delivery default I have been trolled. It looks very much like we will soon find out a default of delivery is not only possible but highly probable.


    Starting with gold, last month (May) saw 221,000 ounces stand for delivery. This amount actually grew during the month which is highly unusual as the amount standing has ALWAYS dropped during delivery periods, this is the first time to my knowledge that the amount standing actually increased. For comparison, May 2015 delivered only 2,500 ounces. Looking back at June of 2015, the amount standing on first notice day was 509,000 ounces. The final amount delivered was 295,000. As I have written and questioned before, who would fully fund their account 100% to take delivery …and then “go away”? The answer of course is someone willing to accept a “premium” as a bribe to not take delivery.


    This June as you know does look to be quite interesting. The initial amount standing was 49.119 tons or over 1.5 million ounces. The amount dropped on day two by about 4 tons but has since gained back nearly all of it to stand at 49.11 tons. (If I am not mistaken, this month is the largest month of gold contracts ever standing for delivery.) Over 40 tons have already been served so we know these longs could not be persuaded to “go away”. We have seen no evidence of delivery for March, April or May. If we add these together with June, we have 65.813 tons standing with only 51.12 tons of registered gold.


    My point is this, someone very real and very big is standing for gold. This “someone” would not be bribed to go away last month and does not look like they will go way this month! Who is this long who all of a sudden cannot be bribed to stand down? As you know, I have speculated the Chinese (and Russia) have been positioning themselves to abandon the dollar as the reserve currency. I theorized nearly two years ago it was the Chinese who held the long month after month and rolled them …until they won’t and then demand delivery. I still believe this is the case as the open interest in silver has stayed so high, only pockets as deep as a sovereign could have sustained the losses. It also needs to be said again, no market has ever seen open interest expand to all time record highs …while the price was plumbing multi year lows. A reconciliation will come at some point, either open interest needs to be washed out or price skyrockets, one or the other.


    Looking specifically at silver, we have a true potential atomic bomb in the works for July. COMEX claims to have 22,482,000 ounces registered and available for deliver. This number is an ALL TIME low for “registered” ounces. To put this number in perspective, it is less than $400 million dollars and only about 10 days of global production. Also in perspective, customers have already withdrawn 12,244,000 ounces of silver in just the first 8 days of June! Finally, the real shocker is the July contract. First, the open interest for July of over 107,000 contracts is more than 50% of the entire open interest. This represents over 536 MILLION OUNCES! Do you realize this amounts to over 60% of total global production on just one bourse and in just one single month? Obviously there will not still be 536 million ounces standing for delivery by July 1st, but as it stands now there are contracts open to deliver 24 ounces for every 1 ounce registered for delivery.


    So, is a delivery default here and now in June or July? I am sure I will hear “they will never default, they will cash settle”. “Cash settlement” IS default, please do not delude yourself into thinking it isn’t. If you believe cash settlement is OK, what will you think AFTERWARDS when your cash will not buy metal? There is no way to tell if it is here and now but it certainly looks possible. Something has definitely changed. The longs of the past who would stand on first notice day only to mysteriously disappear during the delivery period seem to have changed or …are now different entities. It is clear by looking at past deliveries and current inventories that COMEX is not meant to be a major delivery hub. It has been “used” to “price” gold even though very little real metal changed hands. I believe this is about to change as actual gold being traded will become the pricing mechanism. The about face in the price action over the last six months and now the amounts standing tell you something very big is afoot. We already know that physical metal has been moving from West to East for years. I believe we are about to find out the pricing mechanism itself is being moved from West to East. Stay tuned!


    Standing watch,


    Bill Holter
    Holter-Sinclair collaboration


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
    avatar
    Carol
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 20740
    Join date : 2010-04-07
    Location : Hawaii

    Re: INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL PROGRESS REPORT - part 2

    Post  Carol on Thu Jun 09, 2016 10:17 pm

    Soros makes bearish trades on fears of major shifts in global stock markets:   
    http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/StreetTalk/soros-trading-market-shifts/2016/06/09/id/733041/?ns_mail_uid=98717699&ns_mail_job=1672271_06092016&s=al&dkt_nbr=fykjiha8




    WASHINGTON - The World Bank is reducing its forecast for the global economy this year -- again.
    The aid agency predicted Tuesday that output around the world will expand 2.4 percent this year, down from the 2.9 percent it expected in January and unchanged from 2015's tepid growth.
    "The global economy is fragile," said World Bank economist Ayhan Kose, who helped produce the forecast. "Growth is weak."
    In the years since the world began recovering from the 2008 financial crisis, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have repeatedly proved too optimistic about the world economy and have had to downgrade their previous forecasts.
    The World Bank's latest 2016 forecast is more pessimistic than the IMF's outlook for 3.2 percent global growth this year, a projection it made in April.
    Since then, it has become clearer that low commodity prices continue to vex many developing countries whose economies depend on exports of those commodities. And advanced economies are still struggling to gain momentum as they contend with aging workforces and lackluster productivity growth.
    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-world-bank-ratchets-down-world-growth-forecast/?hl=1&noRedirect=1


    Global stocks slide amid concerns about world economy
    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/global-stocks-slide-amid-concerns-about-world-economy/




    China's Overcapacity Is A Direct Consequence Of Past Currency Manipulation    http://www.forbes.com/sites/douglasbulloch/2016/06/08/chinas-overcapacity-is-a-direct-consequence-of-past-currency-manipulation/#73dc06961421


    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-09/pensions-timebomb-us-eu-and-eu-%E2%80%9Cslow-motion-detonation%E2%80%9D


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
    avatar
    Carol
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 20740
    Join date : 2010-04-07
    Location : Hawaii

    Re: INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL PROGRESS REPORT - part 2

    Post  Carol on Thu Jun 09, 2016 11:31 pm

    IMF program pushes Iraq to pay oil companies (deadline June 15th? )
    http://www.iraqoilreport.com/news/imf-program-pushes-iraq-pay-oil-companies-19118/?utm_source=IOR+Newsletter&utm_campaign=247c7691f5-Email_Update&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f9870911e6-247c7691f5-192787413




    Tamimi - the government would agree to the terms of the International Monetary Fund to cover its failure
    http://www.ninanews.com/News_Details.aspx?xHZr1XqrvwP9RlD7yh5E3w%253d%253d




    Rothschild Khazarian mafia using delaying tactics but time is running out 
    Posted by Benjamin Fulford
    June 6, 2016

    The noose that is closing on the Khazarian mafia and the Rothschild family nexus controlling it is getting tighter. Having missed one deadline to meet with a representative of the White Dragon Society, a representative of Baron Jacob Nathaniel Rothschild is supposed to meet with a messenger from the White Dragon Society tomorrow (June 7th) in the US. If the Rothschilds miss this meeting or fail to reach an agreement in principle then, open season will be declared on that entire genocidal family group WDS, gnostic Illuminati and other allied groups promise.

    Also, the official bankruptcy on May 2nd, 2016 of the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Corporation has triggered high level negotiations between US and Chinese authorities this week. In Beijing a high level economic and diplomatic exchange is concluding on Tuesday.

    http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/photo/2016-06/06/c_135416005.htm

    Opening ceremony of China-U.S. high-level dialogue held in Beijing – Xinhua | English.news.cn 
    news.xinhuanet.com 

    Opening ceremony of China-U.S. high-level dialogue held in Beijing— 
    The economic discussions center on what parts of the American economic infrastructure the Chinese will be allowed to buy up, with the US threatening to close its markets to China as its main bargaining card to prevent a total Chinese take-over of the US economy. The other related topic of discussion will be exactly how much of their US Treasury holdings the Chinese will be forced to write off. Needless to say the Chinese will be asking for full payment in the form of US real estate, factories and other assets while the Americans will be asking the Chinese to take as big a haircut as possible.

    As a preface to this meeting, there was the Shangri-La Dialogue, a high level 3 day regional security conference in Singapore that ended Sunday, June 5th. The military discussions there boiled down to the US trying to gather as many allies as possible under its wings on Chinese borders while the Chinese are saying they are already friendly with their neighbours so, the US military have no choice but to work with China for a “win-win” solution.

    https://www.rt.com/usa/345410-carter-asian-nato-china/

    http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-06/05/c_135412934.htm

    There was also an interesting, James Bond type side show to the security conference. Conflicting news reports coming out of Indonesia agree

    a helicopter crashed there. Early reports say only the pilot was killed and the three passengers were only “slightly injured.” However, later reports indicate the others “died on the way to the hospital.”

    http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-06/04/c_135412891.htm

    http://english.astroawani.com/world-news/four-perish-heli-crash-papua-indonesia-107257

    http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2016/06/04/pilot-killed-as-helicopter-crashes-in-papua.html

    http://jakartaglobe.beritasatu.com/featured-2/one-killed-three-injured-papua-heli-crash/

    http://en.tempo.co/read/news/2016/06/04/055776836/Pilot-Killed-in-Paniai-Helicopter-Crash

    CIA agents in Indonesia say the helicopter was taken down by an unknown device, probably an EMP weapon, and the surviving passengers were shot. The helicopter had delivered to Singapore 300 kilos of gold from a secret gold mine run by the Henry Kissinger/Rockefeller faction of the Khazarian mafia’s FreePortMcMoran mining corporation operations in Indonesia. It was returning with about $US 100 million worth of 1000 Singapore dollar bills when it was taken down. The money, which was packed in five “Zero Halliburton aluminum containers” is now missing. Since the gold came from a Khazarian mafia controlled mine and the payment was stolen, it is fairly safe to assume an anti-Khazarian outfit took the money. The message seems to be that that gold deals involving Asian gold have to go through the appropriate channels.

    In any case, despite the bluster between China and the US about the South China Seas, and the intrigue beneath the surface, a broad agreement is being reached between the US and Chinese sides.

    As a part of this deal US banks have been given access codes to the new Chinese built CIPS international financial settlements system, Pentagon sources say. This will lead to a global currency reset as well as the bankruptcy of Deutschebank, the sources say.

    These moves are part of an ongoing campaign to finish off the Nazi faction of the Khazarian mob, multiple sources agree. The Panama papers leaks and the shutting down of offshore tax havens has already dealt a huge blow to them. The campaign to shut off their drug money has also taken a big new turn with the closure of most major amphetamines factories in North Korea, Japanese military intelligence sources say.

    Now former CIA Deputy Director Mike Morell has admitted on MSNBC TV that the war on Iraq was based on lies.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93Fxjup53z8

    Those of us who get our news from real sources have known this for years. What is important though is the fact that it was said on corporate controlled media. What this means is that other corporate media quote it and it becomes part of the “official” public view. By becoming “official,” it opens the way for the prosecution for war crimes of the entire Bush/Nazi cabal.

    The Nazis, feeling the heat, and in a futile attempt to forestall prosecution for 911, “suicided” the former CEO of Zurich “because killing the Chief Financial Officer was not enough,” according to Pentagon sources. You can be sure insurance fraud investigators are closing in on Larry “pull it” Silverstein and his gangster buddies.

    CIA sources say many Khazarian Mafiosi have already fled to Patagonia, in Southern Argentina. One CIA source who was recently in Patagonia says he met Richard Rockefeller there. Richard Rockefeller, the former head of Medicins Sans Frontiers, and son of David Rockefeller, supposedly died in a plane crash in June of 2014. If this source is correct, it now appears he faked his death in order to be able to escape to Argentina.

    However, it is not clear if Argentina will be the same safe haven for Nazis as it was after World War 2. Argentine President and Nazi stooge Mauricio Macri had heart problems recently after meeting reporters. This was probably a message to the Nazis that there would be no escape to Argentina this time.

    http://sputniknews.com/latam/20160604/1040770164/mauricio-macri-hospitalized-arrhythmia.html

    Top Khazarian Mafiosi Benyamin Netanyahu of Israel and the Dalai Lama have been asking for protection from Russia’s Vladimir Putin but will not be getting it, Russian sources say.

    The Khazarian Mafiosi still in the US are circling the wagons around Hillary Clinton and hoping against hope she will still be able to use election fraud, murder, bribes and lies in order to become president.

    However, Pentagon sources are now saying “Hillary may be taken down after the California primary with the Clinton Foundation busted for massive disaster relief charity fraud in Haiti, Africa, India and in the wake of the Aceh tsunami of 2004.” If there is justice in this world Clinton will also face charges for mass murder.

    The Khazarians also think they have another card up their sleeve in the form of Vice President Joe Biden who they hope to run as Democratic candidate in the event Clinton is arrested. Biden is no squeaky clean hero. His son was involved in oil exploration and fracking in the Ukraine immediately after the Nazi coup there. It is a safe bet to say that a Biden presidency would mean continued Rothschild control minus the worst Nazis.

    This is preferable to the Khazarians than Republican candidate Donald Trump, who is pushing for real change and mass arrests of the criminals who infest New York, Washington DC and other US power centers. Trump is now is studying foreign affairs three hours per day in order to prepare himself for the job of renegotiating the international role of the US, sources close to Trump say. Hopefully Trump is also fully informed about the fraudulent Federal Reserve Board. He also needs to look into getting either Asian gold or American silver (or both) to back a new currency he will inevitably have to issue.

    The Rothschilds and the non-Nazi faction of the Khazarian mafia are saying people like Trump and the Chinese are trying to overthrow the “current world order.” This is a sneaky way of trying to associate them with the highly discredited Nazi New World Order. While the plans for a fascist New World Order government, inaugurated with the death of 90% of the world’s population, have been stopped, this does not meet the “current world order,” should continue as is. This order has presided over a system of fraudulent privately owned central banks that have systematically looted the planet of its resources and caused mass extinction on a scale not seen since the end of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago. This fraudulent system has also led such a concentration of wealth that 62 individuals have a greater net worth than the poorest 3.5 billion people on this planet. 

    It is time to fundamentally change how we run this planet. The way to do this is to take the process of deciding what we do in the future out of the hands of privately owned central banks and into the hands of the people. The people and living creatures of this planet are running out of patience. The time for talk is over, the time for action has begun.


    The WDS promises to end poverty and stop environmental destruction within a matter of months if it is given the opportunity to do so. Having done that, it will establish transparent, meritocratic and democratic institutions to ensure good governance for the people and living creatures of this planet. Following this it will retire into the background where it will lie ready to intervene again should civilization ever experience another crisis like the one we are going through now.


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
    avatar
    Carol
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 20740
    Join date : 2010-04-07
    Location : Hawaii

    Re: INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL PROGRESS REPORT - part 2

    Post  Carol on Thu Jun 09, 2016 11:54 pm

    DEUTSCHE BANK’S SHOCKING ECB RANT: WARNS OF SOCIAL UNREST AND ANOTHER GREAT DEPRESSION


    In early February, in a post titled “A Wounded Deutsche Bank Lashes Out At Central Bankers: Stop Easing, You Are Crushing Us“, we showed just how vast the feud between Europe’s biggest – and ever more troubled commercial bank – and the ECB had become. As DB’s Parag Thatte lamented then, “ECB rhetoric suggests additional easing measures forthcoming in March. While a fundamental tenet of these measures, in particular negative rates, has been to push investors out the risk spectrum, we remind that arguably the impact has been exactly the opposite.” And while the DB analyst has been correct, and now NIRP is widely accepted as a major mistake, the ECB proceeded to not only ease even more just one month after this first DB lament, but in what may have been a direct affront to DB, launched the monetization of corporate bonds, something which as we documented earlier today has now led to the complete disconnect between bonds and underlying fundamentals.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-08/deutsche-banks-shocking-ecb-rant-warns-social-unrest-and-another-great-depression


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
    avatar
    Carol
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 20740
    Join date : 2010-04-07
    Location : Hawaii

    Re: INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL PROGRESS REPORT - part 2

    Post  Carol on Fri Jun 10, 2016 12:00 am

    BILDERBERG 2016: WHAT ARE THE GLOBAL ELITE PLOTTING THIS TIME AROUND?


    Later this week, dozens of the most important men in the world are going to gather at an ultra-luxury hotel in Dresden, Germany to discuss the future of the planet. What will happen at this meeting will not be televised, and the mainstream media in the United States will almost entirely ignore it, but decisions will be made at this conference that will affect the lives of every man, woman and child on the entire globe. Of course I am talking about the Bilderberg Group, and for decades you were labeled a “conspiracy theorist” if you even acknowledged that it existed.
    http://www.activistpost.com/2016/06/bilderberg-2016-what-are-the-global-elite-plotting-this-time-around.html


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
    avatar
    Carol
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 20740
    Join date : 2010-04-07
    Location : Hawaii

    Re: INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL PROGRESS REPORT - part 2

    Post  Carol on Fri Jun 10, 2016 11:06 am

    "China Is Fixed" Narrative Breaks: Yuan Tumbles To 4-Month Lows, European Stocks Plunge Most Since Feb

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-10/china-fixed-narrative-breaks-yuan-tumbles-4-month-lows-european-stocks-plunge-mo
    st-f


    For the first time since February 3rd, USDCNH traded over 6.60 as trade data suggests both capital outflows are building (see Hong Kong) and the "China is fixed" narrative is breaking. Whether the Yuan turmoil is responsible - as it has been in the past - for Europe's weakness (and US) is unclear but the last two times the Chinese currency markets started to shudder, the ripples didn't stop until The Fed backed right off...


    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


    "It's 2000 All Over Again!"
    Submitted by John Mauldin via MauldinEconomics.com
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-10/its-2000-all-over-again


    At this year’s Strategic Investment Conference, my good friend Mark Yusko poured cold water on whatever bullishly warm feelings the most optimistic folks may have clung to.
    You might think someone who manages real money would have a more enlightened view than those bearish economists. Mark, however, was hardly bullish. He listed ten plausible scenarios that could send markets down to the basement.
    Here I’ll focus on his “Surprise #6: Déjà vu, Welcome to #2000.2.0.”  That’s right: Mark says it’s year 2000 all over again. That was when the tech bubble popped and sent us to an ugly bear market and recession.
    Here are four major parallels he pointed out that make it clear we are heading for another ugly recession—or are already in one without realizing it.

    Parallel #1: The Fed’s urge to raise rates

    One of the major catalysts for the recession was the Fed’s move to withdraw the liquidity it had pumped into the system for those who expected a payment system breakdown and thus hoarded physical cash.
    Alan Greenspan took the fed funds rate from 5.4% on Y2K day to 6.5% in October 2000.
    (Younger readers will do a double-take on those numbers. Yes, borrowing overnight money once cost more than 6%. Furthermore, the Fed is perfectly capable of hiking rates 100 basis points or more in less than a year. Or at least it used to be.)

    The bear market that followed was the most significant anyone had seen since the early 1980s. High-flying tech stocks crashed, one after the other; and Bill Clinton’s move to release Human Genome Project data sent the biotechnology sector up in flames.
    It was a painful time that no one who lived through it wishes to repeat—but Mark Yusko thinks we will repeat it, starting now.
    Here’s one of the 100 or so slides from his presentation.

    In the 2000–2003 period, we had the tech bubble bursting, corporate scandals like Enron, the 9/11 attacks, and an honest-to-God, old-fashioned, job-killing recession.


    I remember how everyone kept thinking at that time, “Ok, this has been bad, but it’s over now.” But it wasn’t over.
    After repeated fake-outs and final capitulation, we finally emerged from the muck (just in time to start an unsustainable housing bubble, but that’s another story).
    One thing people forget is that we had a very accommodative Fed during that time. Greenspan pushed short rates up to 6.5% in September 2000. Just a year later, he had them down to 3% and ultimately to 1% in mid-2003.
    That Fed was willing to move at light speed if they thought it necessary, unlike more recent regimes.  

    Parallel #2:  Negative corporate earnings

    Another eerie parallel Mark noted was in corporate earnings. Observe the red dashed line in this chart.

    The shaded areas are the last two recessions. We see that earnings peaked a few quarters ahead of each recessionary period then slid deeply into negative territory before recovering as the recession ended.
    This time around we seem to be about halfway down to the trough. It’s entirely possible we are in a recession right now and don’t know it yet. The start date is discernible only in hindsight.
     

    Parallel #3:  Margin debt growth

    Margin debt is another bad sign. The red area in the left chart below shows how debit balances build up right along with market peaks.

    Again, right now we appear to be in a place much like the early stages of the last two bear markets.

    Parallel #4:  The presidential race

    Finally, 2016 also marks the eighth year of the presidential cycle. The average stock return for the eighth year of all US presidential terms since 1901 is -14%. So if you liked 2000 and 2008, you should love the way 2016 ends (gulp).

    Big opportunities lie ahead
    In the equity markets, gains most often happen slowly, and losses usually happen quickly. You can see this in the numbers, as the average bull market is much longer than the average bear market (more than five times longer at 97 months versus 18 months).
    It’s critical, therefore, to always be looking for long opportunities, especially during the brief corrective periods (when things go on sale). You will soon have some excellent buying opportunities. Those with less foresight are going to dump some valuable assets, not because they want to but because they have no choice.
    They’ll need the liquidity.
    What should you buy? That’s not entirely clear yet, nor will we be able to catch the precise bottom. As they say, no one will ring a bell. But if Mark Yusko is right, the chance ought to arrive in the next year or so.


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
    avatar
    Carol
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 20740
    Join date : 2010-04-07
    Location : Hawaii

    Re: INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL PROGRESS REPORT - part 2

    Post  Carol on Fri Jun 10, 2016 11:09 am

    Zerohedge.com



    UMich Consumer Inflation Expectations Plunge To Record Low

    "...consumers do not think the economy is as strong as it was last year nor do they anticipate the economy will enjoy the same financial health in the year ahead as they anticipated a year ago."
    JUN 10, 2016 10:09 AM


    European Banks Are Crashing

    From Deutsche Bank to Credit Suisse and from Barclays to Banco Popolare, the European banking system is getting battered this week withtoday's plunge the biggest in 4 months...


    This is the worst two week drop in European banks since April 2012...

     
    As Deutsche falls back to record lows...

     
    And it's not about top get any better as Europe's yield curve collapses...

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-10/european-banks-are-crashing


    Last edited by Carol on Wed Jun 15, 2016 6:03 pm; edited 1 time in total


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
    avatar
    Carol
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 20740
    Join date : 2010-04-07
    Location : Hawaii

    Re: INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL PROGRESS REPORT - part 2

    Post  Carol on Fri Jun 10, 2016 11:14 am

    Global Bonds Yields Plunge To Record As Treasuries Test Flash-Crash Lows

    German, Japanese, and British bond yields are plumbing historic depths as low growth outlooks combined with event risk concerns (Brexit, elections, etc.) have sent investors scurrying for safe-havens (away from US Biotechs). At 2.0bps, 10Y Bunds are inching ever closer to the Maginot Line of NIRP which JGBs have already crossed, and all of this global compression is dragging US Treasury yields to their lowest levels since February's flash-crash... and it appears stocks are catching down to that reality.


    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-10/global-bonds-yields-plunge-record-treasuries-test-flash-crash-lows


    As Bloomberg reports, the rush into government bonds during 2016 shows no sign of reversing as a weakening global economic outlook fuels demand for perceived havens.


    Bonds are off to their best start to a year since at least 1997, according to a broad global gauge of investment-grade debt that has gained 4.6 percent since the end of December, based on Bank of America Corp. data. They rallied most recently after the weakest U.S. payrolls data in almost six years was reported June 3, damping expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the next few months.
     
    At the same time, polls indicate Britain’s vote on remaining or exiting the European Union is too close to call. Billionaire investor George Soros was said to be concerned large market shifts may be at hand.
     
    “The environment is fundamentally supportive of these low yields, and there is nothing in sight, at least in the short term, that could trigger a trend reversal,” said Marius Daheim, a senior rates strategist at SEB AB in Frankfurt. “The labor market report was one thing which has driven the Treasury market and has supported other markets. If you look in the euro zone, you have Brexit risks that have risen recently, and that is also creating safe-haven flows.”
    10Y Japanese Government bonds plunged to record lows at -15bps!

     
    With Gilts down 9 days in a row...

     
    The World Bank this week cut its outlook for global growth as business spending sags in advanced economies including the U.S., while commodity exporters in emerging markets struggle to adjust to low prices.
    The yield on the Bloomberg Global Developed Sovereign Bond Index dropped to a record 0.601 percent Thursday.

    And stocks are waking up to that reality...


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
    avatar
    Carol
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 20740
    Join date : 2010-04-07
    Location : Hawaii

    Re: INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL PROGRESS REPORT - part 2

    Post  Carol on Fri Jun 10, 2016 12:10 pm

    Bloomberg: Global Investors Dumping US Stocks at Record Pace:  
    http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/StreetTalk/investors-stocks-selling-global/2016/06/10/id/733229/?ns_mail_uid=98717699&ns_mail_job=1672465_06102016&s=al&dkt_nbr=w3maqd1o


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
    avatar
    Carol
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 20740
    Join date : 2010-04-07
    Location : Hawaii

    Re: INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL PROGRESS REPORT - part 2

    Post  Carol on Sat Jun 11, 2016 1:40 pm

    Bix Weir World's Largest Derivative Holder is Imploding =Deutsche Bank

    Deutsche Bank is the "trigger" when it comes to the Global Financial Meltdown so any news about them is BIG NEWS...
     
    Whistle-Blower Said to Aid SEC in Deutsche Bank Bond Probe

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-09/sec-said-to-be-aided-by-whistle-blower-in-deutsche-bank-probe
     
    Deutsche Bank CEO Cryan Gets No Relief as his Biggest Hire Exits

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-08/deutsche-bank-ceo-cryan-gets-no-relief-as-his-biggest-hire-exits
     
    Deutsche Bank Shareholders Class Action Lawsuit

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/important-shareholder-alert-khang-khang-192300963.html
     
    Two Deutsche Bank Traders Indicted Over LIBOR Manipulation

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/two-deutsche-bank-traders-indicted-over-libor-manipulation-174138439.html
     
    I know that everyone is excited about the Silver Manipulation Admissions from Deutsche Bank but what will it matter if their $50T+ derivative position is blown out of the water?

    There will be nothing left but a Huge Hole in Europe.
     
    Let's keep an eye on the Deutsche Bank stock price because someone BIG is protecting the $16/share price.
     
    Deutsche could blow any day now...and the rest of the financial system will go with it.
     
    May the Road you choose be the Right Road.
     
    Bix Weir     www.RoadtoRoota.com


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
    avatar
    Carol
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 20740
    Join date : 2010-04-07
    Location : Hawaii

    Re: INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL PROGRESS REPORT - part 2

    Post  Carol on Sat Jun 11, 2016 2:31 pm

    CRINews:
    China's Sovereign Yuan Bond Has Been Listed To Trade On The London Stock Exchange
    http://english.cri.cn/12394/2016/06/08/4081s930228.htm



    IN ADDITION ...
    IMF program pushes Iraq to pay oil companies
    http://www.iraqoilreport.com/news/imf-program-pushes-iraq-pay-oil-companies-19118/
    To unlock $15 billion in loans, Iraq needs to (key) pay off debts to IOCs – part of a program designed to improve fiscal discipline and raise the confidence of international investors and lenders.


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
    avatar
    Carol
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 20740
    Join date : 2010-04-07
    Location : Hawaii

    Re: INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL PROGRESS REPORT - part 2

    Post  Carol on Sun Jun 12, 2016 11:16 am

    China must take immediate steps to check corporate debt: IMF
    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/china-must-take-immediate-steps-to-check-corporate-debt-imf/articleshow/52703930.cms


    China's corporate debt is a serious and growing problem and the world's second largest economy must take immediate steps to tackle this to avoid new (key) "debt bubble", a top IMF official said today.


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
    avatar
    Carol
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 20740
    Join date : 2010-04-07
    Location : Hawaii

    Re: INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL PROGRESS REPORT - part 2

    Post  Carol on Sun Jun 12, 2016 2:27 pm



    Dr. Jim Willie: Jim Willie- GOLD 2016- Will China Send Gold Prices Into The Stratosphere?  |  June 7, 2016

    https://youtu.be/i2PAPqHw7jw
    In this interview JW says three things related to China and their position ...
    He says that China has a long term plan to take control.  They have bought the Barclay gold vault in London.

    He says the Chinese have decided we're not quite ready yet:
     
    1.  They don't have enough volume in RMB trading for exports.  
    2. They don't have enough RMB bonds in banking systems.  
    3. They don't have enough international usage of the RMB.. Such as in simple currency trading.


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
    avatar
    Carol
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 20740
    Join date : 2010-04-07
    Location : Hawaii

    Re: INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL PROGRESS REPORT - part 2

    Post  Carol on Sun Jun 12, 2016 2:50 pm

    China's yuan trade system to open branches in London, New York

    Markets* | Sun Jun 12, 2016 11:23am EDT


    China's state-owned currency marketplace said on Sunday it was preparing to open branches in London and New York as part of efforts to promote the yuan's global status.


    The China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS), a subsidiary of China's central bank, said in a statement that by expanding its network offshore, it aims to serve more overseas institutions and become a "main trading platform and pricing center" for the yuan globally.


    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-yuan-branch-idUSKCN0YY0N0


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
    avatar
    Carol
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 20740
    Join date : 2010-04-07
    Location : Hawaii

    Re: INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL PROGRESS REPORT - part 2

    Post  Carol on Sun Jun 12, 2016 11:42 pm

    Bix Weir walks through how The Road to Roota Theory was first discovered and what it all means...


    Does the Federal Reserve have a Secret Plan to destroy the US Dollar and return to a Gold Standard?


    It seems so...

    VIDEO: Discovering the Road to Roota by Bix Weir (Part 1)
    http://www.roadtoroota.com/public/Discovering_the_Road_to_Roota.cfm


    May the Road you choose the the Right Road.


    Bix Weir
    www.RoadtoRoota.com


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
    avatar
    Carol
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 20740
    Join date : 2010-04-07
    Location : Hawaii

    Re: INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL PROGRESS REPORT - part 2

    Post  Carol on Mon Jun 13, 2016 9:32 am

    According To Deutsche Bank, The "Worst Kind Of Recession" May Have Already Started
    By Tyler Durden
    Created 05/08/2016 



    One week ago, Deutsche Bank's Dominic Konstam unveiled [2], whether he likes it or not, what the next all too likely step will be as central bankers scramble to preserve order in a world in which monetary policy has all but lost effectiveness: "It is becoming increasingly clear to us that the level of yields at which credit expansion in Europe and Japan will pick up in earnest is probably negative, and substantially so. Therefore, the ECB and BoJ should move more strongly toward penalizing savings via negative retail deposit rates or perhaps wealth taxes."
    Many were not happy, although in reality the only reason why the DB strategist proposed this disturbing idea is because this is precisely what the central banks will end up doing.
    Today, he follows up with an explanation just why the central bankers will engage in such lunatic measures: quite simply, he thinks that economic contraction is now practically assured - and may have already begun - for a simple reason: contrary to popular belief, this particular "expansion" will die of old age after all, and won't even need the Fed's intervention to unleash the next recession (if not depression).


    There is an old saying amongst market watchers that economic expansions do not die of old age. Rather, during the course of the business cycle dynamics emerge that threaten to become unacceptable from a policy perspective. In the context of economic expansion, that dynamic has been inflation. The conventional pattern has been that as expansions mature, demand for labor outstrips the available supply, creating upward pressure on wages. In the presence of pricing power, higher wages are passed along to end consumers through higher prices. Profits decline to the extent that wage acceleration outstrips price increases. The point is that the historical template has the Fed, as an exogenous agent, raising rates to slow wage growth and inflation and to restore profits. In this sense the cycle is actively terminated, rather than “dying of old age”
     
    A number of stylized facts about the business cycle are apparent historically. Recessions always occur as part of an effort to restore profit growth. Profits are almost always dependent on productivity growth. Productivity recoveries almost always involve reduced labor demand. Productivity recoveries usually follow a period of stronger wage growth - and in that way productivity and wages are correlated. It is the strength in wages, however, that pressures profits unless passed through into higher prices. It is therefore always the case that recessions involve a period of central bank monetary tightening aimed at curbing any pass through of higher wages into prices and thus forcing a slowdown in labor demand to boost productivity via a recession and to then curb the rise in wages. Recessions are effectively created by policymakers to counter otherwise accelerating inflation.
    However, this time it's different. As Konstam writes, "the current cycle is distinct in that pricing power is generally lower than in the past... This is likely because of the now well worn theme of global competition: production can be moved to lower wage centers, allowing constant or larger profits in an environment of steady or even lower prices. Lower pricing power reduces the ability of the corporate sector to pass along even mild wage increases to consumers and makes profits that much more vulnerable."
    Then there is the issue of plummeting productivity, something discussed here extensively in the past:


    A second unique aspect of the current cycle is that productivity growth across major economies has been stubbornly low throughout the cycle. We have particular sympathy for the idea that demographic changes are at least in part responsible. The aging of the baby boomer generation has been reflected in an aging workforce, and productivity growth in older workers is lower than in younger workers for life cycle reasons: these workers are further removed from education or vocational training in the use of technology and at any rate have already acquired a set of job related skills.
     
     
     
    Because in equilibrium workers are paid their productivity, stagnant productivity growth implies static wage growth. It is incorrect, however, to presume that faster wages imply concurrent faster productivity growth. Higher productivity might have followed higher wages in the past, but only by virtue of reduced labor input that was meant to contain wage growth relative to consumer prices and restore profits.
     

    http://www.zerohedge.com/print/530789


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
    avatar
    Carol
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 20740
    Join date : 2010-04-07
    Location : Hawaii

    Re: INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL PROGRESS REPORT - part 2

    Post  Carol on Mon Jun 13, 2016 10:22 pm

    China's yuan trade system to open branches in London, New York
    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-yuan-branch-idUKKCN0YY0MU


    THIS WA AN OP ED PIECE IN THE WASHINGTON TIMES LAST AUGUST....
    The day China says its currency is backed by gold

    By L. Todd Wood - - Tuesday, August 18, 2015 
    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/aug/18/l-todd-wood-day-china-says-its-currency-backed-gol/print/






    Reuters: U.S. plans billions in Afghan funding until 2020, seeks allies' help http://reut.rs/21hS0Z5


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
    avatar
    Carol
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 20740
    Join date : 2010-04-07
    Location : Hawaii

    Re: INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL PROGRESS REPORT - part 2

    Post  Carol on Tue Jun 14, 2016 3:51 pm

    Global central banks prepare swap facilities for Brexit vote

    The European flag flies outside of the La Canada shopping centre in Marbella, southern Spain January 23, 2013. 
    REUTERS/JON NAZCA


    FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Central banks around the globe are preparing financial backstops to mitigate market turmoil in case Britons vote next week to leave the European Union, hoping to buffer the real economy from any short-term impact.

    Operating with so-called swap lines, the world's biggest central banks stand ready to temporarily exchange currencies in potentially unlimited quantities if financial market disruption leaves banks and exporters short of foreign currency.

    Policymakers fear that a British vote on June 23 to leave the 28-nation EU, known as 'Brexit', could trigger an exodus of cash from Britain, paralyzing currency markets and weighing immediately on growth if firms cannot gain access to foreign currency needed for their day to day business.

    http://mobile.reuters.com/article/ousivMolt/idUSKCN0Z01SH


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
    avatar
    Carol
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 20740
    Join date : 2010-04-07
    Location : Hawaii

    Re: INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL PROGRESS REPORT - part 2

    Post  Carol on Tue Jun 14, 2016 3:56 pm

    Tyranny Of The PhDs
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-14/tyranny-phds
    Submitted by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

    Sad to say, you haven’t seen nothin’ yet. The world is drifting into financial entropy, and it is going to get steadily worse. That’s because the emerging stock market slump isn’t just another cyclical correction; it’s the opening phase of the end-game.
    That is, the end game of the PhD Tyranny.
    During the last two decades the major central banks of the world have been colonized lock, stock and barrel by Keynesian crackpots. These academic scribblers and power-hungry apparatchiks have now pushed interest rate repression, massive monetization (QE) and relentless rigging of the financial markets to the limits of sanity and beyond. Honest, market-driven price discovery is dead as a doornail.
    No more proof is needed than the “matrix” below. The very thing that financial history proves, above all else, is that governments can’t be trusted to honor their debts.  And that cardinal fact is supposed to be embodied in the yield.
    In fact, modern welfare state democracies have a veritable fiscal death wish.
    What else can you call Japan’s announcement to defer yet again an increase in the consumption tax? Its public debt is already at 240% of GDP, even as its tax-paying population is rapidly streaming toward it’s national old age home.
    At a 135% debt-to-GDP ratio, Italy is not far behind. It’s economy is still smaller than it was in 2007, its banking system has more than $200 billion of bad debt, its public sector squanders more than 50% of GDP and its politically fractured and corruption-ridden government is paralyzed.
    Yet these are only advanced cases of the universal fiscal condition of the world’s sovereigns. With $80 trillion of public debt and unfunded entitlement liabilities, the US government is hardly more solvent than the socialist basket cases of Europe.
    Once upon a time, the tendency of politicians to bankrupt the state was at least partially held in check by the fear of bond vigilantes, and the prospect of soaring interest costs on the public debt. I happened to be there during one such episode, when the 10-year treasury note required a 15% coupon.
    It was enough to cause even Democrats to denounce deficits!
    That is, at least until the GOP took a powder on social security and other entitlement reforms. At length, a tax-cut bidding war and DOD war spending spree supplanted most of the old-time fiscal religion. And then Greenspan finished the job when he threw in the towel on monetary discipline in 1994.
    Once upon a time, too, the interest rate on debt reflected compensation for credit risk and inflation—-and a real return to boot.
    At the moment, however, “investors” aren’t getting paid for any of these costs. Instead, thanks to the mad-men running our central banks they are actually being forced to pay governments to borrow.

    Moreover, that’s not an aberrant condition in the far recesses of the global bond market. There is now $10 trillion of sovereign debt securities with negative yields—–and that  figure is growing by the week as it cascades across government bond markets and out the maturity spectrum.

    There could be nothing more perverse than for the central banking branch of the state to destroy the very government bond market on which modern state finances ultimately depend. But that’s exactly what they are doing, and the end-game could not have been expressed more colorfully than in the recent musings of the once and former bond king, Bill Gross:


    Bill Gross, the manager of the $1.4 billion Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, warned central bank policies that pushed trillions of dollars into bonds with negative interest rates will eventually backfire violently.
     
    “Global yields lowest in 500 years of recorded history,” Gross, 72, wrote Thursday on the Janus Capital Group Inc. Twitter site. “$10 trillion of neg. rate bonds. This is a supernova that will explode one day.”
    To be sure, a supernova at least has a basis in physics. It’s an end-of-life star that suddenly increases in brilliance owing to a catastrophic explosion that ejects most of its mass.
    Not NIRP. There is nothing natural or scientific about it. And it’s the opposite of brilliant.
    It’s an economic mutant confected by arrogant Keynesian economists who inhabit a puzzle palace of fantasy. Not only do they have the nerve to believe that a tiny posse of monetary central planners has the capacity to price money, debt, capital and risk more correctly than the millions of agents that once populated free financial markets, but they do so in the name of invisible measuring sticks and prompts.
    Thus, a recent piece in the Wall Street Journal highlighted a debate inside the Eccles Building which borders on sorcery.


    Fed officials disagree about their likely end point, in part because they are struggling to understand why another underlying interest rate—the mysterious natural rate—has fallen in recent years. And for that many are turning to the musings of Knut Wicksell, a Swedish expert on the subject who died 90 years ago.
     
    According to the textbooks, this so-called natural rate is the inflation-adjusted rate that’s consistent with the economy operating at its full potential, expanding without overheating. Also known as the equilibrium or neutral rate, it balances savings and investment.
     
    The natural rate can’t be observed directly; the Fed knows it has been reached only by how the economy responds. “It’s like discovering Pluto: you can only see the effect of the gravitational pull,” said Eddy Elfenbein, an investor and blogger at the site Crossing Wall Street, comparing it to the dwarf planet whose existence was inferred from the orbits of Uranus and Neptune.
    Well, no. There is no such thing as the “natural rate of interest”.
    There are pegged rates confected by central bankers who flood the market with printing press cash, thereby artificially tilting the supply/demand balance of savings and borrowings; and there are market ratesdiscovered by the continuous interaction of savers and borrowers.
    In an honest free market, savers need a rate high enough to induce them to forgo current consumption from their earnings and profits, while borrowers are constrained by their capacity to service their debts from current income and/or the return on funded assets.
    The resulting market rate of interest reflects a continuous adjustment of these supply and demand balances. Its level over time can be influenced by a multitude of factors including demographics, technological change, entrepreneurial dynamics, wars, droughts, floods, taxes and the regulatory intrusions of the state, to name a few.
    One thing is certain, however. When the animal spirits get too rambunctious and the herd of speculators cause the demand for credit to soar, bubbles get shutdown. When no more savings can be coaxed out of current income by rising interest rates, the market clears; the business cycle self-corrects.
    Modern central banking, by contrast, mutes, overwhelms and eventually cancels out all of the price signals that are processed into shaping the market rate of interest. Instead, monetary central planners attempt to peg the rate based on purely theoretical constructs and standards——benchmarks which are ultimately arbitrary and virtually certain to be wrong.
    In that context, in fact, the “natural rate of interest” is just a derivative of the mythical notion that there is such a thing as full employment GDP. Indeed, it appears that one of the more intellectually addled members of the Fed board has spent his professional life studying exactly that:


    We’re seeing no pickup, none whatsoever, in the natural rate even as the economy has gotten back to full strength,” John Williams, the San Francisco Fed president who has spent years studying it, said in a recent interview with The Wall Street Journal.
    That’s right. By the lights of John Williams the natural rate of interest has dropped from 2-3% as recently as the first decade of this century to a negative level at present. And that implies, according to this PhD soothsayer, that nominal interest rates must be pegged to the floorboard, or even lower, for the indefinite future because the US bathtub of potential GDP has not yet been filled to the brim.
    Yet all of the data points represented in the 50-year blue-shaded area of the chart below, which has now purportedly morphed into the sub-zero area of orange, represent the interaction of essentially unknowable economic variables.
    To wit, potential GDP, full-employment labor utilization, fixed asset production capacity and the general rate of inflation cannot be measured with enough accuracy or specified with enough precession or remain fixed for a long enough duration to even remotely validate Williams’ calculations, as portrayed in the chart.
    The man has essentially been graphing statistical noise. Indeed, he and the rest of the Keynesian posse have turned the financial markets of the world into incendiary gambling casinos while in hot pursuit of what amount to economic unicorns.
     
     
    That the above 55-year graph of the purported natural rate of interest is pure academic gobbledygook is evident from two of its crucial ingredients——the inflation rate and the level of potential GDP.
     
    As to the latter, it’s derived essentially from the level of full employment labor and its actual utilization rate. The difference is a proxy for the potential GDP gap, but there is one humungous problem, as depicted in the graph below.
     
    To wit, the full employment utilization rate is an utterly arbitrary guess. It could lie anywhere in the yellow area of the chart, depending upon a myriad of factors as diverse as welfare state policies and family values. If there were no student loans and disability benefits were based on 1980 standards, for instance, the number of employed hours from the 182 billion unutilized hours at present would be considerably higher.

    As we demonstrated recently, in a world in which labor has been globalized and atomized into hours and gigs, the notion of headcount based labor metrics, as embodied in the U-3 unemployment rate and the monthly jobs count, is obsolete and essentially meaningless. Yet that’s what academic shamans like Williams use to estimate the natural rate of interest.
    By contrast, the only thing that can really be said about the potential labor supply (accepting for the moment the convention that the retirement age begins at 65 years) is that it vastly outstrips current utilization levels.
    In fact, the “unemployment ”gap between potential and actual labor hours is due to countless changing factors which are far beyond the reach of monetary policy; and which respond weakly or not at all to the zero and sub-zero interest rates that are purportedly required by the natural rate.
    Thus, the chart above starts with the maximum parameter. It assumes that adults under 65 can potentially supply a standard work year of 2000 hours, or about 413 billion hours per year. At the same time, the vast yellow-shaded area in the chart, representing unutilized potential hours, embodies a whole variety of policy factors and cultural values and mores which keep labor hours on the sidelines.
    As we pointed out last week, there are upwards of 18 billion hours unavailable due to social security disability recipients; 40 billion outside the production economy owing to post-secondary education enrollments; 28 billion due to the part-time nature of “jobs” in the leisure, hospitality and related service sectors; and 25 billion because mothers with children have chosen to work at child-rearing and homemaking in the unmonetized household economy. Yet 20 years ago, all of these factors generated a substantially different supply effect.
    Moreover, for all of these reasons, and countless more, the utilization rate of potential adult labor hours in the US economy has slide sharply lower—–from about 63% at the turn of the century to just under 56% today.
    You could call the reciprocal of 44% the true unemployment rate and be no more arbitrary than are the natural interest rate calculations of Williams and his fellow money printers at the Fed and other central banks.
    The story is even more preposterous with respect to the inflation component of the calculation. The above depiction of the natural rate of interest slouching into the sub-zero zone assumes that there has been a sharp, secular decline in the rate of consumer level inflation.
    There hasn’t been. What has happened is that the BLS and other government statistical agencies have continuously shortened the inflation measuring stick over the last four decades in the name of purely academic theories like hedonics.
    That is, they adjust the rising retail price of new autos sharply downward because features like 10 airbags and navigation supposedly represent higher utility and more car for the buck. Perhaps they do, but the amount of gain is a completely subjective matter, and its quantification by GS-16s is little more than a stab in the dark. What hasn’t changed, by contrast, is that more than 100 million workers need much higher priced cars to get to work, air bags or no, and whether they need navigation to get there or not.
    So if the secular rate of inflation is falling, it’s because other agencies of the state have been clipping the measuring stick. That is no proof that the natural rate of interest is falling; and it’s no justification whatsoever for interest rate policies which capriciously crush savers and subsidize borrowers.
    Even then, by most measures the rate of inflation is still above 2% on a trend basis. The exception is the PCE deflator less food and energy. Over any reasonable period of time, that measures the general inflation rate experienced by exactly no one.
    Yet it has been adopted by the central banker PhDs for no better reason than it is the shorted stick in the pack, and thereby provides maximum license for pegging money market rates at artificially low levels.


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
    avatar
    Carol
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 20740
    Join date : 2010-04-07
    Location : Hawaii

    Re: INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL PROGRESS REPORT - part 2

    Post  Carol on Tue Jun 14, 2016 3:57 pm

    JPM's Quant Guru Unveils The $1 Trillion Catalyst That Will Unleash The Next Market In Turmoil




    "About ~$1,000Bn of S&P 500 options expire this week. The gamma imbalance turned towards puts yesterday ($9bn per 1% currently), and this will likely push realized volatility higher near term. Post expiry, clients are likely to roll put strikes higher, which will also be supportive of higher volatility. Yesterday’s large move on the VIX indicates short gamma exposure of dealers on VIX products as well." - Marko Kolanovic



    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-14/jpms-quant-guru-unveils-1-trillion-catalyst-will-unleash-next-market-turmoil


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol
    avatar
    Carol
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 20740
    Join date : 2010-04-07
    Location : Hawaii

    Re: INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL PROGRESS REPORT - part 2

    Post  Carol on Tue Jun 14, 2016 3:58 pm

    Here They Come: ECB Pledges To Bailout Markets In Case Of Brexit




    The European Central Bank would publicly pledge to backstop financial markets in tandem with the Bank of England should Britain vote to leave the European Union, officials with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. "there will be a statement to do whatever it takes to maintain adequate market liquidity."




    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-14/here-they-come-ecb-pledges-bailout-markets-case-brexit


    _________________
    What is life?
    It is the flash of a firefly in the night, the breath of a buffalo in the wintertime. It is the little shadow which runs across the grass and loses itself in the sunset.

    With deepest respect ~ Aloha & Mahalo, Carol

    Sponsored content

    Re: INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL PROGRESS REPORT - part 2

    Post  Sponsored content


      Current date/time is Mon Jun 26, 2017 10:33 pm